历史回顾：美联储降息初期居民房地产配置规律

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact on Real Estate - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing global capital markets, with a 52% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 48% probability of a 50 basis point cut by September 2024[1] - Historical analysis shows that after the initial rate cuts, there are significant changes in housing prices, sales, and asset allocation among residents[1] Group 2: Historical Rate Cut Cycles - The report examines five complete rate cut cycles since 1982, focusing on the changes in real estate indicators before and after the cuts[1] - In the first cycle (1984-1986), the average housing purchase power index increased from 86.25% to 91.62%, while the leverage ratio rose from 48.4% to 56.6%[4] - The second cycle (1989-1992) saw a decline in housing purchase power, with the mortgage payment-to-disposable income ratio increasing from 5.79% to 6.03%[4] - The third cycle (2001-2003) experienced a rise in housing purchase power, with the index moving from 122.1% to 129.13%[5] - The fourth cycle (2007-2008) was marked by a significant decline in housing sales and prices, with the average monthly sales dropping from 80.5 thousand to 49.6 thousand[6] - The fifth cycle (2019-2020) benefited from substantial fiscal stimulus, leading to an increase in housing sales and a drop in the mortgage payment-to-disposable income ratio to 4.03%[7] Group 3: Current Market Conditions - As of 2023, the U.S. has seen a net immigration increase of approximately 3.3 million, which is expected to boost housing demand[10] - The current mortgage payment-to-disposable income ratio is at 4.03%, indicating a relatively low burden on residents[10] - However, housing affordability remains a concern, with the average cost of owning a typical home consuming 35.1% of average wages, the highest since 2007[11] - The overall delinquency rate for mortgages is low, at about 1.3%, suggesting a healthy balance sheet for residents[10]