策略周报：美国降息系列专题1-如何交易美联储降息

Group 1 - The report identifies three types of trading scenarios during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts: easing trades, recession trades, and recovery trades [2][7][22] - Easing trades occur when the Federal Reserve shifts its monetary policy from tight to loose, often triggered by cooling employment or manufacturing data [7][9] - Recession trades are triggered by significant systemic risks or economic downturns when the policy easing is insufficient [9][11] Group 2 - The report outlines that in the four interest rate cut cycles since 1995, U.S. stocks generally rise during easing and recovery trades, with the Nasdaq showing greater elasticity [15][17] - In easing trades, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar do not necessarily decline, while gold tends to outperform copper and oil [17][19] - The report notes that the current interest rate cut cycle is likely to resemble the "soft landing" scenarios of 1995 and 2019, with a high probability of a rate cut in September 2024 [22][23][24] Group 3 - The analysis of past interest rate cut cycles reveals that the performance of major asset classes typically follows the order of stocks outperforming bonds, which in turn outperform commodities during recovery phases [23][27] - The report emphasizes that the economic backdrop for the current rate cut cycle is more similar to 2019, with significant risks from U.S.-China trade tensions and a weaker performance of major European economies compared to the U.S. [22][27] - The report concludes that the market's focus will be on the pace and depth of future rate cuts, as the current economic indicators suggest a potential soft landing [22][23][24]