2024年中期策略报告：制造立国

Core Views - China's manufacturing sector accounts for over 30% of the global share, significantly higher than its GDP share of around 18% [2][28] - The global supply-demand mismatch has been minimal due to globalization and China's real estate sector creating excess demand [2][28] - China's strategic focus is on "manufacturing as the foundation of the nation," aiming to upgrade its manufacturing sector and reduce reliance on real estate [3][28] - The "manufacturing as the foundation" strategy will help China navigate internal and external challenges, including globalization headwinds and the transition away from real estate dependency [3][28] Global Supply-Demand Dynamics - Post-WWII, there have been three major global industrial shifts: from the US/Europe to Japan, from Japan to the Four Asian Tigers, and finally to China [31][32][33] - China has become a global manufacturing hub, connecting resource-rich countries with consumer markets in developed nations [34][35] - China's export share has risen significantly since joining the WTO, reaching 14.2% of global exports in 2023 [35][36] - The global supply-demand balance has been maintained due to globalization and China's real estate-driven demand [37] Geopolitical Risks and Supply Chain Disruptions - Rising geopolitical risks, including US-China tensions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Red Sea crisis, are disrupting global supply chains [38][39] - The US has shifted from a globalization advocate to a disruptor, imposing sanctions and export controls, particularly targeting China's tech sector [40][42][43] - China faces challenges in both high-end (US sanctions) and low-end manufacturing (so-called "de-Chinaization") [43] Manufacturing Strategy and Industry Opportunities - China's "manufacturing as the foundation" strategy focuses on upgrading traditional industries and embracing globalization [3][28] - Key opportunities include the export and technology sectors, with a focus on industries like semiconductors, AI, and advanced manufacturing [4][5] - The real estate sector is unlikely to see a full recovery, but structural opportunities exist in areas like inventory reduction [4] - Resource industries are expected to see supply-side constraints and strong overseas demand, particularly in commodities like copper and oil [5] Economic and Policy Outlook - China's GDP growth is expected to reach 5.0% in 2024, with manufacturing investment growing at 8.4% [6][28] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow steadily, with a focus on supporting new productive forces [6][7] - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on supporting high-quality development [9]