方邦股份：三季度转折将至

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 81.06 million yuan in 2Q24, reflecting a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase but a 15% year-on-year decline due to measures taken to control volume and increase prices for ordinary electronic copper foil [8][12]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in the third quarter of 2024, with a full-year breakeven anticipated, driven by the growth of thin film resistors and electromagnetic shielding films [14][15]. - The target price for the company is set at 78 yuan, representing a 37% upside from the current price of 32 yuan [2][9]. Financial Summary - The company's market capitalization is 2.58 billion yuan (approximately 0.36 billion USD) with a current share price of 32.00 yuan as of August 23, 2024 [3][2]. - Revenue projections show an increase from 313 million yuan in Dec-22 to an estimated 970 million yuan by Dec-25, indicating a significant growth trajectory [6][11]. - Net profit is expected to shift from a loss of 68 million yuan in Dec-22 to a profit of 210 million yuan by Dec-25, showcasing a substantial turnaround [6][11]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 28.9% in Dec-22 to 37.8% by Dec-25, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [6][11]. Product Development Updates - The company is making progress in several product lines, including strippable copper, electromagnetic shielding films, and embedded thermistors, with expectations for bulk orders and significant revenue contributions starting in 2025 [13][14]. - The thin film resistors are anticipated to generate high gross profit margins of 70-80%, contributing to the company's profitability in the latter half of 2024 [14][15]. Valuation and Recommendations - The report suggests comparing the company's valuation to semiconductor material manufacturers due to the lack of direct peers in the A-share market [15]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 37% to 210 million yuan, with a valuation of 30 times the 2025 PE ratio applied to the target price [15].