中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】政策杨畅：战略腹地与关键产业备份的海外经验之三：奥巴马时期产业备份的重点与成效-20240826

Policy and Strategic Industries - The report focuses on the strategic backup of key industries during the Obama administration, emphasizing the need to enhance economic resilience, competitiveness, and global leadership by reducing supply chain dependencies [2] - Key industries targeted during Obama's tenure included manufacturing, energy, cybersecurity, healthcare, education, and technological innovation, covering 9 out of 20 primary sub-sectors under the NAICS classification [2] - Specific measures included reshoring manufacturing supply chains, promoting energy independence, strengthening cybersecurity infrastructure, and enhancing healthcare and education systems [2] - The outcomes included reduced trade deficits in manufacturing, decreased reliance on foreign oil, improved broadband coverage, and advancements in healthcare and education systems [2] Asset Allocation and Market Trends - The report analyzes the sequence of asset market bottoms, highlighting that bond yields typically lead, followed by equities and commodities, based on historical data from the US and China [3] - In the US, the sequence of asset bottoms from 1981 to 2020 consistently followed the pattern of bonds leading, followed by equities and commodities, with exceptions in 2000-2002 [3] - In China, the sequence also aligns with the Pringle cycle, where bond yields lead, followed by equities and commodities, as observed in 2004-2006, 2008-2009, and 2018-2020 [3] - Longer lags between bond and equity market bottoms tend to result in stronger equity market rebounds, as seen in historical US data [3] 3C Equipment and AI Opportunities - The 3C equipment industry has seen stable shipment volumes since 2015, driven by product innovation and upgrades, such as the transition from 4G to 5G and the rise of AI-enabled devices [4] - Equipment manufacturers are heavily influenced by Apple's innovation cycles, with significant performance growth observed during 5G rollouts and AI-driven device adoption [4] - AI-enabled smartphones are expected to drive a new wave of hardware upgrades, with global AI phone sales projected to exceed 590 million units by 2027, accounting for over 50% of total smartphone shipments [4] - Equipment manufacturers are poised to benefit from this innovation cycle, with potential for both earnings growth and valuation re-rating [4] Real Estate Market Trends - China's real estate market showed slight improvement in sales from January to July 2024, with sales area and sales value declining by 18 6% and 24 3% year-on-year, respectively, but with a marginal improvement compared to the first half of the year [5] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a 10 2% year-on-year drop, while new construction starts and completions showed mixed trends, with new starts slightly improving but remaining weak overall [5] - Policy easing, including lower down payment ratios and mortgage rates, is expected to support a gradual recovery in sales, although the market remains weak due to insufficient demand [5] Rural Commercial Banks and Bond Investments - Rural commercial banks have become significant buyers of bonds in the secondary market, driven by a funding gap caused by slower loan growth and declining loan rates [6] - These banks prefer short-term government bonds and interbank certificates of deposit, with a notable shift towards long-term bonds in early 2024, followed by a sell-off in the second quarter [6] - Their investment strategies include a mix of holding for yield (configurational strategy), trading for capital gains (trading strategy), and a hybrid approach for medium to long-term bonds [6] - The behavior of rural commercial banks in bond markets can serve as an indicator of future market trends, with their net buying patterns often preceding shifts in bond yields [6]