Orient Securities·2024-08-26 13:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group, with a target price of 94.87 HKD per share, based on a PE valuation of 11x for FY2025 [16][43]. Core Insights - Alibaba's FY1Q2025 performance showed a revenue of 243.2 billion CNY, reflecting a 3.9% year-over-year growth, while adjusted net profit decreased by 9.4% to 40.7 billion CNY [30]. - The focus has shifted back to GMV growth and market share, emphasizing user engagement and service improvements, which are expected to drive sustainable growth [30]. - The report highlights the continued improvement in GMV for Taobao, with a high single-digit growth rate, and a focus on improving monetization rates [30]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group demonstrated significant profitability improvements, with AI-related revenues growing at a triple-digit rate [30]. - International commerce revenue grew by 32% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in cross-border business [30]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for FY2025 are estimated at 1,016.5 billion CNY, with adjusted net profit expected to be 152.7 billion CNY [2][16]. - The report outlines a steady increase in operating income and profit margins across various segments, indicating a positive trend in overall financial health [2][3]. - The adjusted EBITA for the core business segments shows a mixed performance, with some areas like Cloud Intelligence showing robust growth while others like Local Services are still recovering from losses [30].