GEELY AUTO(00175) 光大证券·2024-08-26 13:44Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2][3] Core Views - 1H24 revenue increased by 46.6% YoY to RMB 107.31 billion, with automotive sales and related services revenue up 45.1% YoY to RMB 87.48 billion [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders surged 574.7% YoY to RMB 10.6 billion, driven by a one-time net gain of approximately RMB 7.47 billion from the HORSE joint venture [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders rose 99.2% YoY to RMB 3.13 billion, in line with expectations [2] - Total sales volume, including Lynk & Co, grew 41% YoY to 956,000 units, with NEV sales up 117% YoY to 320,000 units (34% of total sales) and export sales up 67% YoY to 197,000 units (21% of total sales) [2] - Gross margin improved by 0.7 ppts YoY to 15.1%, driven by scale effects and higher export share [2] - SG&A expense ratio decreased by 0.8 ppts YoY to 12.3% [2] Financial Performance - Revenue growth is projected at 31.4% in 2024E, 16.2% in 2025E, and 11.6% in 2026E [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow 196.1% in 2024E, decline 35.2% in 2025E, and increase 23.9% in 2026E [4] - ROE is forecasted at 15.75% in 2024E, 9.97% in 2025E, and 11.39% in 2026E [4] - EPS is projected at RMB 1.55 in 2024E, RMB 1.01 in 2025E, and RMB 1.25 in 2026E [4] Product and Market Strategy - Management revised the 2024E full-year sales target upward from 1.9 million to 2.0 million units [3] - Six new models are expected to be launched in 2H24, including Geely (Geely Xingyuan, PHEV SUV), Zeekr (7X, MIX), and Lynk & Co (Z10, compact BEV SUV) [3] - Geely brand focuses on both fuel and NEV paths, with the Galaxy product line expected to gradually improve [3] - Lynk & Co brand emphasizes high cost-performance and export-driven sales growth, with the Z10 BEV sedan starting pre-sales at RMB 215,800 [3] - Zeekr brand has upgraded its main models in intelligent driving, cabin, and three-electric systems, with new models 7X and MIX expected to further enhance the product matrix in 4Q24 [3] Valuation and Target Price - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders forecast is revised upward by 109.4% to RMB 15.72 billion [3] - Target price maintained at HK$12.03, corresponding to 7x 2024E PE [3] Market Data - Total market capitalization is HK$81.01 billion [5] - 1-year low/high stock price range is HK$7.24/HK$10.76 [5] - 3-month turnover rate is 34.98% [5]