速腾聚创：Product iteration results in an increment in sales volume but a lower ASP

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for RoboSense (02498.HK) with a target price of HK$ 19.90, down from the previous target price of HK$ 23.30 [1][6]. Core Insights - RoboSense reported RMB 727.1 million in revenue for the first half of 2024, with 83.8% from LiDAR sales for ADAS and 10.7% from robotics. The gross margin increased to 13.6%, and the net loss decreased from RMB 768.3 million to RMB 267.5 million [2]. - The company anticipates significant growth in LiDAR sales for robotics, projecting sales of 8,900 units in the first half of 2024, primarily driven by the Helios and Bpeal series. The sales volume in Q3/Q4 is expected to match the total shipments of FY 2023 [3]. - The report highlights the potential for improved gross margins due to economies of scale and product iterations, with expectations of a 2-9 percentage point increase in gross margin for the ADAS segment [5]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for RoboSense are as follows: RMB 1,120.1 million in 2023, RMB 2,300.3 million in 2024, RMB 3,726.0 million in 2025, and RMB 4,863.5 million in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111.2% in 2023 and 105.4% in 2024 [13]. - The gross profit is expected to rise from RMB 93.6 million in 2023 to RMB 1,090.7 million in 2026, with gross margins improving from 8.4% to 22.4% over the same period [13]. - The net loss is projected to decrease significantly from RMB 4,336.6 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 30.8 million by 2026 [1][13]. Product Development - The introduction of the MX model is expected to enhance sales in the lower-end automobile market, with significant contributions anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4]. - The E1 LiDAR, initially designed for blind spot detection, is being positioned as a cost-effective solution for robotics, which is expected to drive revenue growth in that segment [3][5]. Market Position - RoboSense's market capitalization is approximately HK$ 5.1 billion, with a current price of HK$ 11.42, reflecting a significant decline from its 52-week high of HK$ 137.50 [1][10].