证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 08 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 关注功能性服饰/珠宝龙头，优选具备增量业务个股 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【固定收益】如何定价 50 年国债——20250707 【建材】冰箱能效新国标正式出台，真空绝热板行业放量在即—— 20250707 【纺织服饰】关注功能性服饰/珠宝龙头，优选具备增量业务个股—— 2025 中期策略——20250707 【海外】速腾聚创（02498.HK）-从感知到执行，打造机器人技术平台— —20250707 ◼ 研究视点 【通信】液冷转折点：三大预期差，产业落地刚起步——20250707 【传媒】百度文心大模型 4.5 系列开源，字节发布图像生成新模型 Xverse——20250707 【环保】江河保护治理全面升级，水处理行业望受益——20250707 作者 | 分析师 何亚轩 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680518030004 | | | | | 邮箱：heyaxuan@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 ...

在壁垒高企、龙头的先发优势明显的激光雷达赛道，速腾聚创作为行业龙头之一，寡头格局稳定，前景 可期。 技术迭代降本探索驱动激光雷达放量。积极打造机器人第二曲线。展望未来：1）在激光雷达产品方 面，公司通过器件架构优化、芯片自研、数据处理能力迭代及产能搭建，有望持续降本、推动放量加 速。2）在第二曲线方面，速腾聚创今年推出了机器人一系列产品：机器人视觉方案ActiveCamera、第 二代灵巧手Papert 2.0、力传感器FS-3D、高功率密度直线电机LA-8000、机器人域控制器DC-G1。我们 预计，长期公司有望在汽车和机器人赛道，成为具备感知、执行等多环节能力的机器人平台企业。 首次覆盖，给予" 买入"评级。我们预测，速腾聚创的激光雷达出货量在2025E/2026E/2027E 各达到 78/152/226 万台。基于此，我们测算，速腾聚创收入在2025E/2026E/2027E 各达到20 亿/31 亿/39 亿元， 同比增长23%/52%/28%；经调整净利润在2025E/2026E/2027E 或可达-2.8/0.8/3.9 亿元，经调整净利润率 达-14%/3%/10%。 基于5.5x 2026e ...

速腾聚创（02498.HK） 从感知到执行，打造机器人技术平台 致力于成为全球领先的机器人技术平台企业。速腾聚创为智能车及机器 人提供 1）R 系列、M 系列、E 系列、EM 系列激光雷达，以及 Active Camera 和灵巧手等零部件，2）手眼协同、智能移动、相关工具链等 解决方案，以及 3）服务及其他业务。 2024 年公司激光雷达产品出货约 54.42 万台，其中用于 ADAS 和用于机 器人等用途各约 51.98 万台/2.44 万台。2024 年公司收入约 16.5 亿，同 比增长约 47% 。其中，产品/解决方案/ 服务和其他的占比分别为 93%/6%/1%。2024 年公司经调整净亏损约 3.96 亿元，同比减亏。 证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 07 07 年 月 日 随着智驾等级的提升、激光雷达成本的下降，我们认为激光雷达大规模量 产的时代刚刚开始。车载激光雷达端，我们预计 2030 年市场规模可超 500 亿元。机器人激光雷达端，工业场景、消费服务场景、人形机器人等出货 量大幅增长，亦有望驱动机器人激光雷达 2030 年市场规模超 100 亿元。 在 ...

Core Insights - The autonomous vehicle (AV) market is projected to reach a potential size of $1.2 trillion by 2040, covering various sectors including automotive, trucking, logistics, agriculture, and mining [1][7] - Currently, commercial AV deployment is scaling, with 7 cities globally offering commercial robotaxi services and an additional 20 cities set to launch soon [1][7] - The report encompasses companies with a combined market capitalization of approximately $10 trillion, highlighting their strategies in AV technology development and market share competition [1][3] Market Overview - The AV market is expected to grow from $137 billion in 2024 to $1.2 trillion by 2040, with significant compound annual growth rates (CAGR) across various sectors [7] - The automotive sector alone is anticipated to reach $686.89 billion by 2040, with a CAGR of 14.6% from $78.08 billion in 2024 [10] - The trucking sector is projected to grow to $353.52 billion by 2040, with a CAGR of 14.5% [10] Key Companies and Their Roles - Major players in the OEM sector include companies like Caterpillar, Deere, Daimler Truck, and Toyota, all of which are investing in AV technologies and partnerships [4][9] - Chinese companies such as Xiaomi and XPeng are also significant, with Xiaomi focusing on LiDAR technology and XPeng developing the XNGP system for nationwide deployment [8][10] - In the software domain, companies like Google (Waymo) and Baidu (Apollo Go) are leading in AV commercialization, with Waymo planning to provide 250,000 paid rides weekly by 2025 [8][10] Technology and Innovation - The semiconductor sector plays a crucial role in AV development, providing essential capabilities such as AI training and sensor processing [11] - Key semiconductor companies include Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Mobileye, with Nvidia expected to generate $1.7 billion in automotive revenue by 2025 [11] - LiDAR technology is dominated by companies like Hesai and RoboSense, with significant revenue growth projected in the coming years [8][11] Future Projections - By 2030, it is estimated that 10% of Deere's revenue will come from recurring sources related to AV solutions in agriculture and construction [9] - Daimler Truck's Torc system is expected to contribute $1.5 billion in profit by 2035, representing 30% of its adjusted EBIT in 2024 [9] - Horizon Robotics anticipates that 97% of its revenue will come from AV-related solutions by 2024, with significant market share growth expected by 2030 [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is witnessing a surge in smart driving concept stocks, particularly driven by Tesla's recent launch of its Robotaxi pilot service in Austin, Texas, which has positively impacted related companies in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Youjia Innovation (02431.HK) increased by 7.95% [1] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660.HK) rose by 4.40% [1] - Zhixing Technology (01274.HK) saw a gain of 3.10% [1] - Sutech Juchuang (02498.HK) experienced a rise of 1.59% [1] Group 2: Tesla's Robotaxi Service - Tesla initiated its Robotaxi pilot operation on June 22 in Austin, Texas, with an initial fleet of 10 Model Y vehicles [1] - Passengers are required to pay a fixed fee of $4.20 for the Robotaxi service [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for SOTON Juchuang to HKD 28.6, maintaining a neutral rating, reflecting a slightly positive outlook on the company's fundamentals driven by significant growth in the robotics segment and improved gross margins [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The robotics segment of SOTON Juchuang has shown substantial growth, contributing positively to the overall business outlook [1] - There is optimism regarding the penetration rate of ADAS LiDAR in China, with even low-cost vehicles gradually adopting it as a standard feature [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% for SOTON Juchuang's sales from 2024 to 2027 [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 109 million in 2026, with a break-even point anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about uncertain market share dynamics and a decline in the average selling price of mixed sales, which may slow down the revenue growth of ADAS LiDAR [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for SUTENG JUCHUANG Company Overview - **Company**: SUTENG JUCHUANG - **Industry**: LiDAR technology, Robotics, Automotive Key Financials - **Q1 2025 Total Revenue**: Approximately 330 million RMB, showing slight growth year-on-year [2][3] - **Gross Margin**: Improved significantly to 23.5% from 12.3% in the same period last year [2][3] - **LiDAR Shipment Volume**: Total shipments of approximately 110,000 units, with 97,000 units for ADAS and 12,000 units for non-automotive applications [3] Product Performance and Market Trends - **Robotics Sales Growth**: Sales in the robotics sector surged from 4,200 units last year to 12,000 units this year, achieving a threefold increase [2][3] - **LiDAR Market Penetration**: Expected to increase from 15% in 2024 to 20% in 2025, with total LiDAR shipments projected to double to 3 million units [2][8] - **EMX Product Launch**: EMX, an upgraded version of MX, features enhanced performance with a detection range increased from 200 meters to 300 meters and a line count increase from 128 to 192, priced around 1,200 RMB [2][10] Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - **Collaboration with KUKA**: A three-year agreement to supply 1.5 million LiDAR systems, indicating significant potential in the robotics market [2][6] - **Diverse Applications**: Interest from logistics companies and various sectors, including lawnmowers, highlighting the broad applicability of LiDAR technology [7][15] Future Outlook - **Market Share Goals**: Aiming to maintain approximately 33% market share in the LiDAR sector [5] - **Sales Projections**: Anticipating around 200,000 units in the robotics sector, a significant increase from 20,000 units last year [5] - **Price Trends**: LiDAR prices expected to decrease due to technological advancements and increased competition, with current gross margins around 18% and potential increase to 20%-25% in Q2 2025 [11][12] Competitive Landscape - **Core Competency**: Strong R&D capabilities with 700 out of 1,600 employees focused on development, including hardware, chips, and algorithms [4][14] - **Market Demand**: The robotics market is expected to grow significantly, with applications in various fields such as logistics and cleaning, and a potential market size much larger than automotive [6][15] Challenges and Risks - **US Market Barriers**: Less than 5% of revenue from the US market due to tariff uncertainties affecting procurement plans [18][19] - **OEM Pricing Pressure**: Difficulty in increasing gross margins due to strict controls from OEM manufacturers [12][13] Product Development and Future Innovations - **Upcoming Products**: Focus on EM4 and EMX for passenger vehicles, with EM4 designed for overseas markets featuring L3 autonomous driving capabilities [4][20] - **Robot Development**: Recent launch of humanoid robot products and plans for gradual commercialization, focusing on specific products like ACME and dexterous hands [22] Conclusion - **Growth Potential**: SUTENG JUCHUANG is well-positioned in the LiDAR and robotics markets, with strong growth prospects driven by technological advancements, strategic partnerships, and expanding applications across various industries [6][21]

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 330 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 30.7, with a net loss of 100 million yuan [1] - The total sales volume of the company's lidar products in Q1 2025 was approximately 108,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, with sales for ADAS applications down 16.8% and sales for robotics and other products up 183.3% [1] - The company's gross margin in Q1 2025 was 23.49%, an increase of 11.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -30.13%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company has a strong order backlog benefiting from the rapid development of ADAS and high-level autonomous driving, having established close partnerships with 30 global automakers and suppliers [2] - In 2025, the company launched the EM platform and introduced new digital products like Airy and E1R, covering various robotics applications [2] - The company has secured a record order of 1.2 million solid-state lidar units for the lawnmower industry and is collaborating with over 20 companies to advance embodied intelligence applications [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][64]. Core Insights - The company has a strong order backlog, with significant growth potential in both the ADAS and robotics markets. The introduction of new products and strategic partnerships is expected to drive future revenue growth [2][64]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, but the gross margin improved significantly by 11.2 percentage points [1][14]. - The company aims to become a global leader in robotics technology, leveraging its expertise in AI, hardware, and software integration [22][25]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.28 billion yuan, with a net profit of -1.00 billion yuan, showing improvement compared to previous quarters [1][7]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 23.49%, reflecting an increase of 11.17 percentage points year-on-year [14][18]. - The company forecasts revenues of 24.89 billion yuan, 36.17 billion yuan, and 52.75 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected net profit of -2.8 billion yuan, 0.6 billion yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan [3][64]. Product Development and Market Position - The company launched the EM platform in 2025, which is expected to lead the industry into a digital era, and has introduced several new products for both automotive and robotics applications [2][29]. - The company has established partnerships with over 30 automotive manufacturers and suppliers, securing more than 100 model pre-installations [2][44]. - The company is recognized as a leader in the global lidar market, with significant market share in both passenger vehicle lidar and ADAS lidar segments [60][61]. Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - The company has formed strategic collaborations with leading companies in the Robotaxi sector, including partnerships with major players like Didi and Pony.ai for mass production of autonomous vehicles [45][46]. - A record order of 1.2 million solid-state lidar units was secured in May 2025, marking a significant achievement in the robotics sector [50][51]. Research and Development - The company has established three R&D centers in China, focusing on continuous innovation in lidar technology and AI-driven robotics solutions [55][57]. - The company holds the highest number of patents in the lidar technology sector, indicating a strong commitment to R&D and technological advancement [57][58].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][64]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a strong order backlog, benefiting from the rapid development of ADAS and advanced driving technologies. It has established close partnerships with over 30 automakers and suppliers globally, securing more than 100 models for pre-installation [2][44]. - The company aims to become a leading global robotics technology platform, leveraging its AI-driven solutions and advanced components for robotics applications [22][25]. - The company has launched new digital products, including the EM platform and various laser radar products, which are expected to drive future growth [29][31]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%, with a net loss of 1 billion yuan [1][7]. - The gross margin improved significantly, reaching 23.49%, an increase of 11.17 percentage points year-on-year [14][18]. - The company forecasts revenues of 24.89 billion yuan, 36.17 billion yuan, and 52.75 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected net profits of -2.8 billion yuan, 0.6 billion yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan [3][64]. Product and Market Development - The company has introduced several new products targeting both the automotive and robotics markets, including the EM platform and various laser radar solutions [29][34]. - The company has secured a record order of 1.2 million solid-state laser radars for the lawnmower industry, indicating strong demand in the robotics sector [50][51]. - The company is actively exploring the embodied intelligence field and has established partnerships with over 20 companies to promote the development and application of intelligent robotics [3][44]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a global leader in the laser radar and perception solutions market, with a significant market share in the automotive sector [60][61]. - The company has been awarded the Edison Award for Best New Product in Engineering and Robotics, highlighting its influence and leadership in advancing robotics perception technology [59][62].