Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HK$ 19.90, down from a previous target of HK$ 23.30 [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of RMB 730 million in the first half of 2024, with 83.8% from lidar sales for ADAS and robotics. The gross margin improved to 13.6%, and net loss decreased from RMB 770 million in the same period last year to RMB 270 million [1]. - The sales of lidar for robotics showed explosive growth potential, with 8,900 units sold in the first half of 2024, primarily from lower-priced Helios and Bpearl series. The company expects quarterly sales to reach last year's total in the third or fourth quarter of this year [1]. - The report highlights that product iterations are driving increased sales volume but leading to price declines. The company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow in 2025 and break even in 2026, despite a downward adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts due to a higher proportion of lower-priced E1 and MX sales [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 1,120.1 million in 2024, RMB 2,300.3 million in 2025, RMB 3,726.0 million in 2026, and RMB 4,863.5 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 105.4% and 62.0% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 15.3% in 2024, 18.4% in 2025, and 22.4% in 2026, despite the anticipated decline in average selling prices due to product mix changes [10]. - The net profit is projected to be a loss of RMB 467 million in 2024, narrowing to RMB 227 million in 2025, and turning positive in 2026 with a profit of RMB 35.1 million [7][10].
速腾聚创：产品迭代导致量增价跌