YADEA(01585) 国联证券·2024-08-26 13:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yadea Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - In the first half of 2024, Yadea Holdings experienced short-term revenue pressure due to stricter industry regulations and the pending implementation of new national standards. However, core profitability showed growth despite fluctuations caused by foreign exchange and government subsidies. Looking ahead, the gradual rollout of the trade-in policy is expected to boost industry demand, coupled with an accelerated market share increase for the company under the stringent regulatory environment, indicating an imminent operational turning point [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 144.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. Gross profit fell by 9.8% to 25.94 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.9% to 10.34 billion yuan, with basic earnings per share down 13.5% to 0.345 yuan [6][9]. - The company faced significant operational pressure due to comprehensive regulatory tightening and the adjustment of new national standards, leading to a 22% year-on-year decline in sales volume to 6.38 million units. The average selling price remained stable, while sales revenue from complete vehicles dropped by 20% to 9.8 billion yuan. Battery and charger revenue decreased by 9.6% to 4.1 billion yuan, while revenue from electric two-wheeler components surged by 72.5% to 600 million yuan [6][9]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 18.0%, primarily due to optimized product mix and increased margins in battery and electric drive products, which saw a revenue increase of 31%. The operating profit margin also improved by 1.4 percentage points to 7.3% after excluding three major expenses [6][10]. - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 7.2%, despite fluctuations from government subsidies and foreign exchange losses [6][10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to see an accelerated increase in market share in the second half of the year, driven by the new national standards that raise safety and regulatory requirements for complete vehicles. The introduction of a whitelist system for manufacturers will favor leading companies like Yadea, which has three entities listed on the initial whitelist [6][10]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 347.6 billion, 447.6 billion, and 542.0 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.0%, 28.8%, and 21.1%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 27.5 billion, 36.8 billion, and 46.3 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 4.2%, 33.7%, and 25.9% [6][7].