NMHD(600863) 华源证券·2024-08-27 03:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Inner Mongolia Huadian (600863.SH) [3] Core Views - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a 19.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, reaching 1.77 billion yuan, despite a 2.97% decline in revenue [3] - The profit growth was primarily driven by dividends from subsidiaries and a reduction in financial expenses [3] - The company has a strong focus on renewable energy, with 2GW of approved new energy capacity, and favorable policies are expected to stabilize return rates [3] - The company has committed to a 70% dividend payout ratio from 2022 to 2024, with an estimated dividend yield of 5.7% for 2024 [3] - The current valuation remains low, with a projected PE ratio of 11 for 2024, indicating potential for price appreciation [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.77 billion yuan, up 19.2% [3] - The company generated 28.48 billion kWh of electricity, a slight decrease of 0.28% year-on-year, with coal production at 6.829 million tons and a sales price of 416.8 yuan/ton, up 0.37% year-on-year [3] Profitability and Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of 2.476 billion yuan, 2.812 billion yuan, and 3.010 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.5%, 13.5%, and 7.1% [4] - The projected earnings per share for 2024 is 0.38 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.8% [4] Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 70% for the years 2022-2024, with expected dividend yields of 5.7%, 6.6%, and 7.2% for 2024-2026 [3][4]