汽车行业跟踪报告：7月汽车产销量同比、环比双降，出口延续增长趋势

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Viewpoints - In July, both production and sales of automobiles experienced a year-on-year and month-on-month decline, indicating a relatively flat market performance. Specifically, production reached 2.286 million units and sales 2.262 million units, down 4.8% and 5.2% year-on-year, and down 8.8% and 11.4% month-on-month respectively. For the first seven months of 2024, production and sales totaled 16.179 million and 16.31 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% and 4.4%, but a slowdown compared to the previous six months [3][4]. - The commercial vehicle sector also saw a decline in July, with production and sales at 256,000 and 268,000 units, down 10.5% and 6.6% year-on-year, and down 22.4% and 20.5% month-on-month. For the first seven months of 2024, commercial vehicle production and sales were 2.262 million and 2.336 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.4% and 3.5% [3][4]. - The passenger vehicle segment reported a similar trend, with production and sales of 2.03 million and 1.994 million units in July, down 4% and 5.1% year-on-year, and down 6.8% and 10% month-on-month. Cumulatively, for the first seven months of 2024, passenger vehicle production and sales reached 13.917 million and 13.974 million units, with year-on-year growth of 3.9% and 4.5% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Data - In July, total automobile production and sales were 2.286 million and 2.262 million units, with year-on-year declines of 4.8% and 5.2%, and month-on-month declines of 8.8% and 11.4% [3]. - Commercial vehicle production and sales in July were 256,000 and 268,000 units, with year-on-year declines of 10.5% and 6.6%, and month-on-month declines of 22.4% and 20.5% [3]. - Passenger vehicle production and sales in July were 2.03 million and 1.994 million units, with year-on-year declines of 4% and 5.1%, and month-on-month declines of 6.8% and 10% [3]. New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle production and sales in July reached 984,000 and 991,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 22.3% and 27%. New energy vehicles accounted for 43.8% of total new car sales [4]. - For the first seven months of 2024, new energy vehicle production and sales totaled 5.914 million and 5.934 million units, with year-on-year growth of 28.8% and 31.1% [4]. Export Trends - In July, automobile exports were 469,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% but a month-on-month decline of 3.3%. Cumulatively, for the first seven months of 2024, exports reached 3.262 million units, up 28.8% year-on-year [4]. - New energy vehicle exports in July were 103,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. For the first seven months of 2024, new energy vehicle exports totaled 708,000 units, up 11.4% year-on-year [4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that policy support for the automotive industry, including incentives for replacing old vehicles and increasing subsidies for new energy buses, is expected to stimulate demand and drive growth in the sector. The competitive advantage of Chinese automobiles in terms of cost-effectiveness is anticipated to sustain export growth [8].