Investment Rating - The report maintains an Outperform rating for Morimatsu International Holdings (2155 HK) with a target price of HKD 7.24, revised down by 29% [8][6] Core Views - The company's revenue growth in 1H24 missed expectations, with total revenue of CNY 3.48 billion, down 5.8% YoY, primarily due to weak downstream demand and delayed revenue recognition from certain projects [2][6] - Overseas revenue grew significantly, reaching CNY 1.95 billion, up 37.2% YoY, accounting for 56% of total revenue, with Asia (excluding China) contributing CNY 1.01 billion, up 92.9% YoY [2][6] - Gross margin improved to 29.6%, up 0.3 ppts YoY, driven by product mix optimization and refined management [2][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders declined 10.9% YoY to CNY 376 million, impacted by accounts receivable impairment of CNY 50 million [3][6] Revenue Breakdown - By Segment: - Oil & Gas: CNY 461 million, up 108.2% YoY [2] - Power Battery Materials: CNY 651 million, up 40.4% YoY [2] - Electronic Chemicals: CNY 660 million, flat YoY [2] - Chemicals: CNY 704 million, down 9.0% YoY [2] - Pharmaceuticals: CNY 664 million, down 49.7% YoY [2] - Daily Chemicals: CNY 92 million, down 50.0% YoY [2] - By Region: - China: CNY 1.52 billion, down 32.8% YoY [2] - Overseas: CNY 1.95 billion, up 37.2% YoY [2] Order Analysis - Backlog: Total backlog stood at CNY 8.78 billion as of 1H24, down 3.3% from the end of 2023, with pharmaceuticals accounting for 30.2% and chemicals for 21.6% [4][6] - New Orders: New signed orders in 1H24 were CNY 3.16 billion, down 35.7% YoY but up 10.5% sequentially, with Power Battery Materials contributing CNY 1.02 billion [4][6] - Overseas Orders: 76% of new orders were from overseas, up from 70% in 2023, with 70% of the total backlog being overseas orders [6] Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY24/25/26 were revised down to CNY 8.11 billion, CNY 9.06 billion, and CNY 10.12 billion, implying YoY growth of 10.2%, 11.7%, and 11.7% respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for FY24/25/26 is expected to be CNY 879 million, CNY 992 million, and CNY 1.15 billion, with YoY growth of 4.1%, 12.9%, and 15.6% respectively [7] Valuation - The target price was revised down to HKD 7.24 using a DCF model, with WACC adjusted to 10.6% (previously 8.7%) and a perpetual growth rate of 2.5% [8] - The stock is currently trading at FY24/FY25 P/E ratios of 5.2x and 4.8x respectively [8]
森松国际：2024年中报点评：整体收入不及预期，海外销售值得关注