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新东方-S:激荡教培三十载,而今迈步新征程

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4]. Core Views - The company has successfully adapted to the new regulatory environment post "Double Reduction" policy, showing significant transformation results. In FY2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.314billion,a444.314 billion, a 44% increase, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 381 million, a 47% increase, indicating a recovery to 98% of FY2021 levels [1][11]. - The company is transitioning from K9 academic training to new educational business models, including competency training and smart learning systems, while maintaining its high school and adult education services [1][2]. - The education industry is experiencing a supply clearance with strong demand resilience, leading to a concentration trend among leading institutions [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1993 by Yu Minhong, the company is a leading education and training institution in China, listed in the US in 2006 and in Hong Kong in 2020. It has diversified its business to include K12 education, study abroad consulting, and adult education [1][11]. Transformation Strategy - The company has ceased K9 academic training and is exploring new business avenues such as competency training, e-commerce, and cultural tourism, leveraging its brand and traffic for diversified monetization [1][2][15]. Industry Analysis - The education sector has seen a significant reduction in supply post "Double Reduction" policy, with a 96% decrease in K9 training institutions. The market is expected to recover to pre-policy levels by 2025, with leading institutions gaining market share [1][2][15]. Growth Outlook - New educational businesses are projected to generate 890millioninFY2024,withexpectedgrowthratesof55890 million in FY2024, with expected growth rates of 55%, 22%, and 20% from 2025 to 2027. Traditional education services are expected to grow at a stable rate of 15-20% over the next three years [2][5]. - E-commerce and cultural tourism are also anticipated to contribute to growth, with the e-commerce segment expected to recover profitability as operations normalize [2][15]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are 5.113 billion, 6.414billion,and6.414 billion, and 7.893 billion, with Non-GAAP net profits projected at 528million,528 million, 796 million, and 1.096billion,respectively[5][2].ThecompanyisexpectedtomaintainaPEvaluationof2528xforFY2025,translatingtoatargetmarketcapitalizationof1.096 billion, respectively [5][2]. - The company is expected to maintain a PE valuation of 25-28x for FY2025, translating to a target market capitalization of 132-148 billion [2][5].