LI AUTO(02015) 中国银河·2024-08-27 08:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Li Auto (2015 HK) [3] Core Views - Li Auto has emerged as the leading domestic new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturer, with strong brand and product definition capabilities, positioning itself as a leader in the family luxury segment [1] - The company's dual-energy strategy (extended-range and pure electric) is expected to drive long-term growth, despite short-term financial pressures due to increased R&D and channel expansion costs [1] - Li Auto's organizational restructuring, particularly the transition to a matrix structure 2 0, is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support future growth [1] Financial Performance and Projections - In 2024 Q1, Li Auto's net profit declined by 36% YoY to RMB 600 million, but profitability is expected to recover from Q2 onwards due to cost reductions from economies of scale [1] - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 151 28 billion in 2024 to RMB 289 41 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 7 74 billion to RMB 22 54 billion over the same period [1][2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 3 65 in 2024 to RMB 10 62 in 2026 [2] Product Strategy - Li Auto's L-series extended-range vehicles, covering the RMB 250,000-450,000 price range, have achieved strong sales, with the L6 model driving significant growth in 2024 [1][23] - The company's pure electric strategy is supported by accelerated supercharging station deployment, with 700 stations built by July 2024, laying the foundation for future high-end pure electric models [1][61] - Li Auto plans to launch five high-voltage pure electric models by 2025, targeting the RMB 200,000+ market segment [59] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Li Auto ranked 5th in NEV brand sales in 2023, with a 182 21% YoY growth in sales, solidifying its position as a top player in the domestic NEV market [10] - The company's unique product positioning, combining extended-range technology, large SUVs, and advanced smart features, has driven its success in the family luxury segment [26][27] - Li Auto's intelligent driving capabilities, including the rollout of no-map NOA (Navigate on Autopilot), have positioned it as a leader in smart driving technology [50][51] Organizational Structure and Management - Li Auto's organizational evolution, from a vertical to a matrix structure, has been a key driver of its growth, with founder Li Xiang focusing on product and strategy in the latest 2 0 iteration [17][21] - The company's centralized equity structure, with Li Xiang holding 69 2% of voting rights, enables efficient decision-making and strategic adjustments [17] Future Outlook - Li Auto is expected to sell 535,000 vehicles in 2024, with pure electric SUVs contributing significantly to sales from 2025 onwards [63] - The company aims to lead the high-end pure electric market by leveraging its advanced charging infrastructure and product innovation [61][62]