石油化工行业周报：美国商业原油库存下滑，油价高位震荡

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry is "Overweight" (maintained) [1][33]. Core Views - The international oil prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies despite a projected increase in U.S. crude oil production over the next two years [16][11]. - The oil service sector is seeing a decline in active drilling rigs in North America, while OPEC countries continue to increase their drilling activities, which is favorable for oil service companies operating in the Middle East [17][16]. - The refining sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with significant price differentials for certain products, indicating potential for improved profitability [19][18]. - The polyester sector is witnessing a tightening supply-demand balance, with recommendations to focus on specific companies as their performance is expected to improve [23][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector declined approximately 1.42% during the week of August 19-23, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 0.55 percentage points [7][9]. - Key stocks that performed well included Yuxin Co., Sinopec, and Hengtong Co., while stocks like Zhun Oil and Beiken Energy saw declines [10][9]. Upstream Oil & Gas Sector - Brent crude oil futures settled at approximately $79.02 per barrel, with a weekly decline of about 0.83%, while WTI crude oil futures were around $74.83 per barrel, down 2.4% for the week [11][13]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by about 4.65 million barrels, indicating a tightening supply [14][16]. Oil Service Sector - The number of active drilling rigs in North America decreased by 1 week-on-week, with a more significant year-on-year decline of 47 rigs [17][18]. - OPEC countries increased their drilling platforms, which is beneficial for oil service companies [17][16]. Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices saw slight declines, with gasoline prices around 8249 RMB/ton and diesel prices at 6940 RMB/ton [19][20]. - The price differentials for products like ethylene and PX have shown fluctuations, indicating potential for refining companies to recover performance [19][18]. Polyester Sector - The average price for POY in East China was approximately 7470 RMB/ton, with a price differential of about 1297 RMB/ton [23][24]. - Inventory levels for polyester products have increased, but the performance outlook remains positive for certain companies [23][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes within the oil and petrochemical sector, including state-owned enterprises, oil service companies, and specific refining and polyester firms [33][2].