Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price reduced from HKD 13.4 to HKD 8.5, indicating a potential downside of 21.9% from the current closing price of HKD 10.88 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company reported that self-operated products accounted for 40% of its GMV in the fiscal year 2024, with expectations for profit margins to recover as normal business operations resume [1]. - The forecast for fiscal year 2025 has been adjusted downwards by 43% for GMV, 19% for revenue, and 33% for profit due to the impact of brand day activities and sales adjustments [1]. - The company plans to enhance its influencer team and brand influence while seeking synergies with New Oriental and expanding its offline presence [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For fiscal year 2024, the company expects total GMV and revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce to reach RMB 14.3 billion and RMB 6.53 billion, respectively [1]. - The self-operated product GMV is projected to be RMB 5.7 billion, up from approximately 30% in the previous fiscal year [1]. - The company launched 488 SKUs of self-operated products in fiscal year 2024, compared to 120 in fiscal year 2023 [1]. - The monthly GMV from the company's Douyin account has consistently exceeded RMB 100 million, with plans to add over 10 vertical accounts on Douyin [1]. - The company aims to ensure food safety and stabilize online public opinion, enhance its influencer team, and improve online traffic and user engagement [1]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for fiscal year 2025 have been revised to RMB 6.02 billion, a decrease of 19% from previous estimates [4]. - Gross profit is expected to decline to RMB 1.14 billion, reflecting a 39.4% reduction [4]. - The adjusted operating profit is forecasted at RMB 458 million, down 41.3% from earlier predictions [4]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 558 million, a decrease of 33.3% [4].
东方甄选：自营品GMV占比4成，回归正常经营后自营品利润率将有所恢复