煤炭行业深度报告：从运营资产角度看煤炭公司盈利确定性

Investment Rating - The investment ratings for coal companies are as follows: - Buy: Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) - Hold: Hengyuan Coal Power (600971.SH), Huaibei Mining (600985.SH), China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Energy (601225.SH), Zhongmei Energy (601898.SH), Xinji Energy (601918.SH) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to maintain high profitability due to tight supply conditions and effective pricing mechanisms established post-supply-side reforms. The overall coal price volatility has decreased, leading to a more stable market environment [1][2][6] - The differentiation in stock performance is attributed to resource endowments and business model variations among companies. Leading firms benefit from high self-produced coal sales and stable pricing due to long-term contracts [2][6] - The essence of high profitability in the coal industry lies in possessing quality operating assets, which ensures higher returns compared to midstream manufacturing sectors. Companies backed by strong shareholder groups have a natural advantage in acquiring quality assets [2][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: High Profitability and Pricing Power - The coal industry has undergone significant changes over the past two decades, characterized by phases of growth, decline, restructuring, and stabilization. The current phase is marked by a return to a tight supply-demand balance, leading to reduced price volatility [13][22] - The supply-side reform has led to a significant reduction in outdated production capacity, with a total of 98 million tons removed, resulting in increased industry concentration [22][24] Section 2: Weakening Price Drivers and Individual Stock Valuation Advantages - The coal price has been on a downward trend in 2024, but the industry has seen a rise in valuations due to strong profitability certainty. This shift indicates a market preference for companies with stable earnings [18][20] - Companies with high long-term contract sales ratios, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, exhibit strong performance resilience, while those with integrated coal and power operations show better stability against cyclical fluctuations [2][20] Section 3: Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable performance, such as Zhongmei Energy and Shaanxi Coal. Additionally, companies with integrated operations, like China Shenhua and Hengyuan Coal Power, are highlighted for their ability to withstand market fluctuations [6][20]