章源钨业：钨矿涨价&下游放量，24H1归母增30%

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024H1 revenue reached 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.23%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 112 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.86% [3] - The company's tungsten powder and carbide powder businesses benefited from rising tungsten prices, with gross margins increasing by 0.77 and 1.69 percentage points respectively [3] - The subsidiary Aokete achieved a revenue of 310 million yuan in 2024H1, a year-on-year increase of 27.33%, but incurred a loss of 9.31 million yuan [4] - The company's hard alloy products saw significant growth in sales, with a gross margin of 18.49%, up 3.47 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Performance - The company's 2024H1 tungsten concentrate (65%) production was 1,791.88 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.95%, while tin metal (100%) production was 414.86 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.28% [3] - In 2024Q2, the company achieved revenue of 940 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 85 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.6% [3] - The company's tungsten powder, carbide powder, and thermal spray powder sales in 2024H1 were 1,849.82 tons, 2,494.79 tons, and 226.98 tons, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 16.34%, 4.80%, and 9.24% [3] - The company's hard alloy, coated blades, and rod sales in 2024H1 were 618.23 tons, 11.66 million pieces, and 358.86 tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 20.12%, 23.36%, and 35.63% [3] Market and Industry Analysis - The average price of tungsten concentrate (WO3≥65%) and ammonium paratungstate (APT) in 2024H1 was 134,100 yuan/ton and 198,500 yuan/ton, respectively, up 12.97% and 10.96% year-on-year [3] - The company's tungsten powder and carbide powder products are in the middle of the industrial chain, with production costs and prices strongly correlated with tungsten concentrate prices [3] - The company's hard alloy products are downstream products, with the company actively expanding the market and developing new customers, leading to a year-on-year increase in production and sales [3] Future Projections - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 3.8 billion yuan, 4.0 billion yuan, and 4.1 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 210 million yuan, 270 million yuan, and 360 million yuan, respectively [4] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 30.14x, 23.56x, and 17.88x, respectively [4] - The company's gross margin for 2024-2026 is projected to be 13.2%, 14.5%, and 15.8%, respectively [5] - The company's net profit margin for 2024-2026 is projected to be 5.6%, 6.9%, and 8.8%, respectively [5]