CSSD(601512) 国泰君安·2024-08-27 14:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.14 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [2] - The current stock price is 7.43 CNY, indicating a potential upside based on the target price [2] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 was under pressure due to factors such as reduced land sales and declining investment income [3][4] - Despite short-term challenges, the company's core business in park development and operations remains competitive, with growth potential in its "two wings" strategy (industrial investment and green development) [4] - Revenue in H1 2024 decreased by 20.9% YoY to 1.51 billion CNY, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 27.1% YoY to 560 million CNY, with a net profit margin of 37.2% [4] - The company is focusing on its core business by divesting non-core assets, such as the planned transfer of 51% of Zhongxin Heshun's equity, which is expected to provide strong support to future performance [4] Business Performance - Park development and operations revenue declined by 23.3% YoY to 1.15 billion CNY, accounting for 76% of total revenue [4] - Green utility business revenue decreased by 12.1% YoY to 300 million CNY, representing 19.6% of total revenue [4] - The decline in park development revenue was primarily due to industry-wide adjustments in the real estate sector, leading to reduced land sales [4] - Investment income fell by 44.7% YoY, and fair value change income dropped by 87.8% YoY, contributing to the larger decline in net profit compared to revenue [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its "two wings" strategy, focusing on industrial investment and green development [4] - In green development, the company added 179 MW of grid-connected capacity in H1 2024, bringing the total to 653 MW, achieving 32.7% of its 2 GW target by 2025 [4] - In industrial investment, the company committed 160 million CNY to four market-oriented funds, driving total fund investments to 4.1 billion CNY, and added two direct investment projects [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, 5.0% in 2025, and 6.7% in 2026, reaching 4.24 billion CNY by 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 1.7% in 2024, 7.0% in 2025, and 7.3% in 2026, reaching 1.59 billion CNY by 2026 [5] - EPS is forecasted to be 0.92 CNY in 2024, 0.99 CNY in 2025, and 1.06 CNY in 2026 [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is 8.04x for 2024, 7.52x for 2025, and 7.01x for 2026 [5] - The P/B ratio is 0.74x for 2024, 0.69x for 2025, and 0.65x for 2026 [5] - The dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 4.5% from 2024 to 2026 [5]