HENDERSON LAND(00012) 交银国际证券·2024-08-27 14:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Henderson Land (12 HK) with a target price of HKD 23.84, implying a potential upside of 10.1% from the current price of HKD 21.65 [1][2] Core Views - Henderson Land's H1 2024 results were in line with expectations, with revenue increasing by 14.4% YoY to HKD 11.76 billion, driven by growth in other income. However, core net profit declined by 10.4% YoY to HKD 5.44 billion, mainly due to lower gross margins and a one-off accounting gain of HKD 1.6 billion from the Sunlight REIT in H1 2023 [1] - The interim dividend per share remained unchanged at HKD 0.5, with the core payout ratio increasing by 4.6 percentage points to 44.6% [1] - Property development gross margins are under pressure, with pre-tax profit declining by 44% YoY to HKD 500 million, excluding the impact of the sale of Grand Victoria East and one-off gains from agricultural land resumption. The company expects higher gross margins in H2 2024, with 60% of the HKD 20.8 billion in contracted sales to be recognized [1] - Rental income remained stable, increasing by 0.9% YoY to HKD 3.46 billion, with occupancy rates steady at 93%. The Henderson, a Grade A office building in Central, was completed in H1 2024 and is expected to contribute rental income in H2 2024, with a pre-leasing rate of 60%, significantly higher than another major new project in the area (<20%) [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow by 25.2% YoY to HKD 34.53 billion in 2024E, with core net profit increasing by 12.0% YoY to HKD 10.87 billion. Core EPS is forecasted to grow by 12.0% YoY to HKD 2.25 in 2024E [3] - The company's net debt decreased by 3.9% to HKD 71.02 billion as of June 2024, with a net debt-to-equity ratio of 22.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from December 2023 [5] - Gross margins declined by 9.1 percentage points YoY to 35.5% in H1 2024, while EBIT margins fell by 14.5 percentage points to 29.9% [5] Property Development - Property development revenue increased by 14.0% YoY to HKD 4.94 billion in H1 2024, driven by the sale of Grand Victoria East. However, pre-tax profit declined by 44% YoY to HKD 500 million, excluding one-off gains [1] - The company plans to launch five residential projects in Hong Kong in H2 2024, totaling 960,000 sq. ft., with 56% located in Kai Tak. However, profitability is expected to be under pressure due to ample supply and price reductions in the area [1] Rental Business - Total rental income increased by 0.9% YoY to HKD 3.46 billion in H1 2024, with occupancy rates stable at 93%. The Henderson, a Grade A office building in Central, is expected to contribute rental income in H2 2024, with a pre-leasing rate of 60% [1] - The company's long-term rental growth is expected to come from The Henderson's further leasing and the Central Harbourfront project, which will be completed in phases from 2026 to 2032. However, rental levels and payback periods for these projects may be lower and longer than expected due to oversupply in the office market [1] Peer Comparison - Among Hong Kong property developers, Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and New World Development (17 HK) have Buy ratings with target prices of HKD 110.1 and HKD 15.8, implying potential upsides of 54.6% and 119.4%, respectively [6] - In the mainland property sector, Yuexiu Property (123 HK) and China Resources Land (1109 HK) have Buy ratings with target prices of HKD 6.6 and HKD 42.82, implying potential upsides of 57.1% and 94.6%, respectively [6]