Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 39.29, indicating a potential upside of 35.3% from the current price of HKD 29.05 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The MONA series is expected to lead sales into a second growth curve, with the M03 model anticipated to have a highly competitive final price and superior energy consumption and in-car systems compared to peers [1]. - The company is projected to improve sales and revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 by 6-9% and 12-23% respectively, driven by the M03 and the upcoming P7+ model [1][2]. - The M03 is expected to maintain sales momentum through a two-phase launch strategy, with the entry-level version priced competitively at approximately RMB 120,000 to 125,000 [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at RMB 40,224 million, with a year-on-year growth of 31.1%, and for 2025E at RMB 51,918 million, reflecting a growth of 29.1% [3][6]. - The gross profit for 2024E is forecasted to be RMB 5,099 million, with a gross margin of 12.7%, improving from 8.8% in 2023 [3][6]. - The net loss is expected to narrow to RMB 4,974 million in 2024E, compared to RMB 10,376 million in 2023 [3][6]. Sales and Delivery Expectations - The company anticipates delivering 20,000 vehicles in September, with expectations that over 10,000 units of the M03 will be delivered in the same month [1][2]. - The M03 model is designed to attract younger consumers, particularly female users, with its stylish appearance and customizable options [1]. Competitive Positioning - The M03 is positioned competitively against similar models, with a projected price of RMB 150,000, compared to competitors like the Qin L120KM and Tesla Model 3, which are priced significantly higher [7]. - The report highlights the advantages of the MONA series in terms of in-car technology and autonomous driving capabilities, which are expected to further enhance the company's market position [2][7].
小鹏汽车-Ｗ：MONA系列有望引领销量进入第二成长曲线，上调评级至买入