传化智联：1H业绩承压，公路港盈利稳中有升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of RMB 4.05 [7][8]. Core Views - The company experienced pressure in its performance during the first half of 2024, with revenue and profit both declining year-on-year. Revenue was RMB 12.92 billion, down 23.3%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 290 million, down 24.5%. The decline was primarily due to weak demand across the logistics business segment. However, the chemical business is expected to grow steadily, and improvements in the logistics segment, particularly in the highway port operations, are anticipated to enhance profitability as macroeconomic conditions improve [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the logistics business generated revenue of RMB 8 billion, a decrease of 36.4%, with a gross margin of 8.27%, an increase of 2.25 percentage points. The smart highway port business saw a slight revenue decline of 0.4% to RMB 614 million, but its gross margin improved by 3.6 percentage points to 78.9%. The supply chain logistics business revenue fell by 4.9%, while the network freight platform business revenue decreased by 30% to RMB 6.8 billion due to stricter operational standards and customer optimization [2][3]. Business Segments - The chemical business achieved revenue of RMB 4.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with a gross profit of RMB 1.17 billion, up 17.7%. The gross margin for the chemical business was 23.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points. Key segments such as dyeing auxiliaries, coatings, and synthetic rubber all reported positive growth [4][5]. Investment Income - The company reported strong investment income, achieving RMB 78.52 million in net investment income in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 124.9%. This was primarily driven by contributions from joint ventures [5]. Earnings Forecast - The report maintains the profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at RMB 660 million, RMB 780 million, and RMB 940 million, respectively. The estimated PE ratio for 2024 is 17.2x, compared to the industry average of 12.3x, reflecting a premium due to the ongoing expansion and optimization of the highway port business [2][6].