洛阳钼业：产量超预期释放，Q2业绩高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][28]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching 102.82 billion yuan, up 18.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders soaring by 670.4% to 5.42 billion yuan [6][10]. - The Congo copper and cobalt segment showed strong performance, with copper production increasing by 100.74% to 313,800 tons and cobalt production rising by 178% to 54,000 tons in the first half of 2024 [6][10]. - The company is entering a capacity release year, with plans to achieve annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons in the next five years [28][29]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: Revenue of 172.99 billion yuan, Net profit of 6.07 billion yuan - 2023A: Revenue of 186.27 billion yuan, Net profit of 8.25 billion yuan - 2024E: Revenue of 203.09 billion yuan, Net profit of 11.31 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 204.33 billion yuan, Net profit of 13.96 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 213.71 billion yuan, Net profit of 16.70 billion yuan [5][6]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is projected to increase from 0.38 yuan in 2024 to 0.77 yuan in 2026 [5][29]. - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - The P/E ratios are expected to decrease from 14.6 in 2024 to 9.9 in 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [5][29]. Segment Performance - Congo Copper and Cobalt Segment: - Revenue from this segment reached 12.32 billion yuan with a gross margin of 51% in the first half of 2024 [6][10]. - Brazil Niobium and Phosphate Segment: - The segment reported stable operations with niobium production increasing by 8.23% and phosphate production by 6.47% in the first half of 2024 [15][21]. - IXM Trading Segment: - The trading segment achieved revenue of 92.97 billion yuan, with a net profit of 664 million yuan, reflecting a 117% year-on-year increase [24][28].