YUNDA Corp.(SZ:002120) Guolian Securities·2024-08-28 03:13Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Yunda Express [8][15]. Core Insights - The growth of the express delivery business is closely linked to the e-commerce consumption upstream, with the rapid rise of social and live-streaming e-commerce platforms driving a high growth rate in express delivery volume, which exceeded 20% in the first half of 2024 [11][13]. - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a recovery in business volume and a gradual realization of scale effects as capital expenditures peak and decline [11][15]. - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected revenue of 523.52 billion, 587.39 billion, and 636.21 billion yuan, and net profit of 21.20 billion, 25.59 billion, and 29.47 billion yuan respectively [15][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yunda Express, founded in August 1999, is a well-established express delivery service provider in China, focusing on e-commerce logistics [20][22]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with the actual controllers being Nie Tengyun and Chen Liying, and Alibaba being the third-largest shareholder [24][26]. Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2023, the company achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% in revenue, with improvements in profitability reflected in a rise in gross margin and net profit margin by 0.42 percentage points and 0.49 percentage points respectively in 2023 [11][28]. - The company’s operating strategies have led to significant cost optimization, with a 24.0% year-on-year decrease in core costs per package and a 29.4% decrease in total costs per package in the first quarter of 2024 [11][15]. Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing robust growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.4% from 2010 to 2023, and a year-on-year growth rate of 23.1% in the first half of 2024 [41][39]. - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with average express delivery prices declining by 6.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, indicating a moderation in price competition [47][41]. Future Projections - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 523.52 billion, 587.39 billion, and 636.21 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of 21.20 billion, 25.59 billion, and 29.47 billion yuan [15][12]. - The anticipated earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 0.73, 0.88, and 1.02 yuan, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [15][12].