昆仑能源：预期上半年盈利同比温和增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) [3] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a moderate year-on-year profit growth in the first half of the year, driven by stable growth in the natural gas sales segment and restructuring of the gas station business [1] - The natural gas sales segment is projected to see a pre-tax profit increase of 5% year-on-year, with retail gas volume expected to rise by approximately 2% and wholesale gas volume increasing by 30% due to the integration of gas stations [1] - The LNG segment is anticipated to remain stable, while the oil and gas extraction business is expected to contribute less to profits, with a projected 76% decline in pre-tax profit for this segment [1] - The company has announced a mid-term dividend distribution for the first time in this interim report, with a dividend of approximately 0.15 RMB per share, maintaining a 40% payout ratio [1] - The company has a robust cash flow and cash position, with a net cash of approximately 15.5 billion RMB at the end of 2023, and an average free cash flow of about 9 billion RMB per year from 2024 to 2026 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first half of 2024 is estimated at 93,999 million RMB, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [2] - The pre-tax profit for the first half of 2024 is projected to be 6,986 million RMB, a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit for the first half of 2024 is expected to be 3,315 million RMB, also a 2.9% increase year-on-year [2] - The company’s gas sales volume is expected to grow from 30.3 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 33.3 billion cubic meters in 2024, representing a 9.7% growth [2] - The LNG processing volume is projected to increase from 2.83 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 3.08 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a utilization rate of 49% [2] Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - The operating cash flow for 2024 is estimated at 13,295 million RMB, with capital expenditures projected at 5,013 million RMB [5] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio increasing from 40% in 2023 to 45% in 2025 [5] - The net debt-to-equity ratio is projected to remain at 6.2%, indicating a net cash position [6]