Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Insights - Qatar has significant natural gas resources, with proven reserves of 24.7 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 13.1% of global reserves, ranking third worldwide. Qatar's LNG export capacity is expected to double by 2030, with an annualized growth rate of 13% anticipated from 2025 to 2030 [4][11]. - Qatar's production costs are extremely low, with extraction costs ranging from $0.3 to $0.5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and liquefaction costs around $1.8 per MMBtu, making it one of the most competitive suppliers globally [4][43]. - The majority of Qatar's LNG exports are secured through long-term contracts, primarily targeting the Asian and European markets, which could lead to downward pressure on spot prices if global demand weakens [4][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Qatar's Natural Gas Resource Endowment - Qatar's natural gas reserves are substantial, with a stable production rate. As of 2024, Qatar's natural gas production is projected to be 179.45 billion cubic meters, representing 4.35% of global production [11][30]. - A new wave of capacity expansion is expected from 2026 to 2030, with over 60 million tons of liquefaction capacity anticipated to come online, potentially doubling Qatar's LNG export capacity [4][30]. 2. Low-Cost Competitive Advantage - Qatar's gas field production costs are significantly lower than those of other major producers, with extraction costs at $0.3 to $0.5 per MMBtu, compared to $0.5 to $1 for Russia and $1.6 to $3.1 for the U.S. [43][44]. - The liquefaction cost for Qatar's LNG is approximately $1.8 per MMBtu, positioning it favorably in the global market [48]. 3. Qatar LNG Pricing Model - Qatar's LNG exports are primarily directed towards Asia and Europe, with 80% and 14% of exports respectively in 2024. Long-term contracts dominate the sales model, with over 90% of existing capacity locked in [52][58]. - The pricing of Qatar's long-term contracts is linked to oil prices, with a competitive edge when oil prices are below $70 per barrel [67]. 4. High Long-Term Contract Volumes from Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies have secured significant long-term contracts with Qatar, totaling 15.9 million tons per year, with additional investments locking in 11 million tons per year expected to be released between 2026 and 2027 [4][64]. 5. Investment Strategy - Qatar is undergoing a large-scale expansion of its LNG capacity, with expectations of a 61% increase in export capacity by 2030. The low extraction and liquefaction costs position Qatar as a key player in the global LNG market [4][30]. - The report suggests focusing on domestic gas companies that have secured advantageous gas sources and diversified supply pools, particularly in a potential downtrend in global gas prices [4][36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural gas industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - Natural gas is recognized as a clean, low-carbon, and flexible fossil energy source, serving as a crucial bridge for energy transition. It is expected to support global energy transformation for an extended period [4][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shown significant achievements in supply-side development, with infrastructure construction accelerating. By the end of 2024, China's natural gas production is projected to reach 246.451 billion cubic meters, a 28% increase from 2020 [4][14] - The consumption growth rate of natural gas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has slowed compared to the previous five years, but the price mechanism is gradually being rationalized. The apparent consumption of natural gas in China is expected to reach 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, an 8% year-on-year increase [4][36] - The report anticipates a continued downward trend in natural gas costs, with stable demand growth expected before 2030. The demand for LNG in the transportation sector is projected to reach 40-55 billion cubic meters by 2030 [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Natural gas is positioned as a transitional energy source to achieve carbon peak goals by 2030, with a target of 15% of total energy consumption by that year [4][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes energy security, energy conservation, and carbon reduction, with a clear trend of increasing natural gas consumption in provincial plans [8] Supply and Infrastructure - Significant progress has been made in increasing domestic gas production, with a focus on conventional and unconventional gas sources. The total length of natural gas pipelines reached 126,000 kilometers by the end of 2023 [14][25] - By the end of 2024, 31 LNG receiving stations will be operational, with a total receiving capacity exceeding 15 million tons per year [25][26] Consumption Trends - The natural gas consumption structure includes urban gas, industrial fuel, power generation, and chemical use, with urban gas and industrial fuel maintaining stable proportions [36] - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on gas prices, with a notable increase in the average import price of LNG in 2022 [4][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream exploration companies like Xin Natural Gas, integrated companies like ENN Energy and Jiufeng Energy, and downstream city gas companies such as China Resources Gas and Kunlun Energy [4]

Core Insights - The event aimed to enhance value management for listed companies under China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and involved a reverse roadshow in Xinjiang with participation from various investment institutions [1][2][3] - Investors expressed confidence in CNPC's ability to integrate traditional and renewable energy, innovate in refining and chemical sectors, and expand its sales network, indicating a strong belief in the company's future high-quality development [1][2] Group 1: Investor Engagement - A total of 28 investors from 26 domestic and international institutions participated in the roadshow, visiting key operational sites such as Xinjiang Oilfield and Karamay Petrochemical [1] - Investors showed significant interest in innovative projects like the world's first SAGD heavy oil tower-type thermal extraction and high-temperature solar thermal coupling project [1][2] Group 2: Company Achievements - Karamay Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical have made substantial progress in "reducing oil and increasing chemicals," maintaining high profitability during the refining industry's downturn [2] - The Kunlun Energy Xinjiang Company received high praise for its efforts in natural gas terminal utilization and its role in local economic development [2] Group 3: Future Plans - The company plans to continue enhancing its investor relations management system, focusing on strategic development, communication, brand image, and shared operational success with investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Kunlun Energy (00135) [1] Core Views - Morgan Stanley slightly lowered the target price for Kunlun Energy by 2.2%, from HKD 9.1 to HKD 8.9 [1] - The update includes a new model incorporating 2024 performance and introduces forecasts for 2027 [1] - The earnings forecast for the company has been reduced to reflect a more conservative outlook on overall industry growth and a decrease in natural gas sales volume growth [1] - Given the increasing concerns about the macro environment, the market is expected to place more emphasis on the stock's defensive characteristics, leading to a slight premium in valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among industry leaders is to enhance upstream and downstream resource integration, strengthen customer service and comprehensive energy service capabilities, and utilize new AI technologies to improve operational efficiency [1][8]. Industry Challenges - The urban gas industry is undergoing deep adjustments due to changes in business models, increased safety costs, and complex international situations, which pose new challenges for company development [1][4]. - The industry has transitioned from a decade of rapid growth to a more saturated market, with major players and numerous small companies creating a fragmented landscape [4]. - The operating environment for urban gas companies is becoming less optimistic due to intensified safety regulations, rising costs, and international market fluctuations caused by geopolitical events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][5]. Financial Performance - Urban gas companies have seen a decline in net profits, shifting from double-digit growth to single-digit or even negative figures, largely due to reduced margins in gas connection services [5]. - The engineering installation business has also been negatively impacted by the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, leading to significant revenue and margin declines [5]. Pricing and Market Dynamics - The pricing structure in the urban gas sector is characterized by a mismatch between upstream pricing controlled by major oil companies and government-regulated downstream sales prices, which limits flexibility [5][6]. - Companies are experiencing pressure from gas price inversions, particularly in regions like Wuhan, where selling gas incurs losses [5]. Infrastructure and Investment - Companies are investing heavily in upgrading aging pipeline networks, with Shanghai Gas completing 770 kilometers of pipeline renovations and planning to invest around 10 billion yuan for an additional 900 kilometers [6][8]. - The strategic focus includes enhancing local high-pressure gas networks and improving interconnectivity with other regions to ensure stable gas supply [8]. Customer Service and Technological Integration - Companies are recognizing the need to diversify energy services to meet the evolving demands of industrial clients, who now require various forms of energy beyond just gas [9]. - The adoption of AI and digital technologies is seen as crucial for reducing operational costs and improving service efficiency, with initiatives like the installation of smart gas meters being implemented [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy (0135.HK) [6]. Core Views - Kunlun Energy, as a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation, is positioned to benefit from the high-quality development of its natural gas terminal business, with a projected net profit of 6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [1][4]. - The company aims to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% by 2024, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1][46]. - The natural gas sales business is expected to maintain strong growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7% in revenue from 2016 to 2024, supported by a stable supply of high-quality gas from its parent company [2][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Kunlun Energy is the largest natural gas terminal utilization enterprise in China, focusing on natural gas sales and comprehensive utilization, with operations covering 28 provinces and municipalities by the end of 2024 [17][26]. - The company achieved a natural gas sales volume of 54.2 billion cubic meters in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [17][26]. 2. Business Development - The natural gas sales business is expanding, with a significant focus on industrial gas sales, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 24.35% from 2018 to 2024 [2][58]. - The company has established two LNG receiving stations with a total unloading capacity of 13 million tons per year, contributing a pre-tax profit of 3.577 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of 75% [3][72]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 6.649 billion yuan, 7.124 billion yuan, and 7.598 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.77 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.88 yuan [4][5]. - The report highlights a stable financial structure with a projected revenue of 187.046 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.46% [5][28]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Kunlun Energy benefits from a strong resource supply from its parent company, which allows it to maintain a competitive edge in purchasing costs compared to other gas companies [2][64]. - The company is gradually transitioning from upstream oil exploration to focus on natural gas terminal utilization, reducing its cyclical exposure [3][89].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 187,046 million, an increase of 5.8% compared to RMB 177,354 million in 2023[24] - Profit attributable to shareholders for the year was RMB 5,960 million, up from RMB 5,682 million in 2023, reflecting a growth of 4.9%[24] - Core profit before income tax expense was RMB 13,259 million, compared to RMB 13,101 million in 2023, indicating a year-on-year increase of 1.2%[24] - EBITDA for the year was RMB 17,640 million, slightly down from RMB 17,675 million in 2023[24] - The company reported a profit before income tax expense of RMB 12,635 million, a marginal increase from RMB 12,593 million in the previous year[24] - Net profit margin for 2024 is 5.08%, a decrease of 0.14% from 2023[28] - Return on total assets (ROA) improved to 6.63% in 2024, up from 6.55% in 2023[28] - Earnings per share (Basic) increased to 68.83 RMB cents in 2024, compared to 65.62 RMB cents in 2023[28] - Other net gains for the year were approximately RMB 1,520 million, up from RMB 903 million in 2023, primarily due to integration of gas stations and reduced exchange losses[98] Sales and Operations - Total natural gas sales volume was 54,170 million cubic meters, contributing to revenue of RMB 152,090 million from the natural gas sales business[6] - The company added 849,900 new users, bringing the cumulative total to 16,453,800 users across the country[6] - Sales volume of city gas reached 421 million cubic meters in 2024, an increase of 8.8% from 387 million cubic meters in 2023[33] - Total sales volume of natural gas reached 542 million cubic meters in 2024, a 9.9% increase from 493 million cubic meters in 2023[33] - The total number of city gas users exceeded 16.45 million, with retail volume increasing by 8.1% year-on-year and sales totaling 54.17 billion cubic meters[55] - Retail gas volumes in the northwestern and southwestern regions increased by 12% and 19.2%, respectively[59] - The total refueling volume for LNG ship refueling-at-sea business was 110,000 tonnes for the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 470%[59] Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets totaled RMB 86,153 million, while current assets were RMB 57,237 million as of December 31, 2024[24] - The company’s net assets increased to RMB 88,835 million, up from RMB 85,783 million in 2023[24] - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, were approximately RMB 143,390 million, a decrease of RMB 129 million or 0.1% from RMB 143,519 million as of December 31, 2023[115] - The Group had total borrowings of RMB 23,462 million as of December 31, 2024, with significant repayments due within one year increasing to RMB 9,133 million from RMB 5,464 million last year[123] Cost Management - Average finance cost decreased to 2.90% in 2024 from 3.33% in 2023, reflecting improved financing conditions[28] - Employee compensation costs for the year were approximately RMB 5,830 million, a decrease of 2.4% from RMB 5,970 million last year, with employee compensation accounting for 3.12% of operating revenue[102] - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization for the year were approximately RMB 5,160 million, representing an increase of 3.4% compared to RMB 4,992 million last year[103] - Other selling, general, and administrative expenses for the year were approximately RMB 3,491 million, a decrease of 4.5% from RMB 3,656 million last year, due to strict cost control measures[104] - Interest expenses for the year were approximately RMB 803 million, representing a decrease of 16.4% compared to RMB 960 million last year, attributed to a reduction in average financing costs to 2.9% from 3.3%[111] Strategic Initiatives - In 2025, the company aims to enhance marketing strategies and focus on green and low-carbon development to seize opportunities presented by the central government[76] - The company plans to increase the proportion of retail gas volume to 73% or above and aims to put 10 new projects into production[81] - The company will accelerate the transformation of the "Natural Gas+" intelligent integrated energy service model, focusing on low-carbon and zero-carbon initiatives[82] - The company aims to achieve a target of over 15% for low-carbon and zero-carbon stations in its operations[84] - The company continues to focus on five major strategies: innovation, green, market, capital, and low cost, to enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness[86] Governance and Management - The Company has complied with all code provisions in Part 2 of the Corporate Governance Code during the year, except for the absence of certain independent non-executive directors at meetings[159] - The Board is collectively responsible for promoting the success of the Company by directing and supervising its affairs[165] - The day-to-day management and operation of the Company are delegated to the Chief Executive Officer and senior management, with periodic reviews of delegated functions[168] - The Company has established clear directions regarding the powers of management and the circumstances under which management must report back to the Board[174] - The Board has a necessary balance of skills and experience appropriate to the business requirements, ensuring effective independent judgment[176] Workforce and Diversity - The Group employed 24,809 employees globally as of December 31, 2024, a decrease from 27,138 employees in the previous year[132] - As of December 31, 2024, the total number of employees was 24,809, with male employees constituting 68.3% and female employees 31.7%[198] - The Board consists of six male Directors and one female Director, indicating a gender diversity ratio of approximately 14.3% female representation[189] - The Company has adopted a Board Diversity Policy to ensure a balanced representation of skills, experience, and gender among Board members[190] - The Company maintains a commitment to gender diversity in its workforce, opposing any form of discrimination[200]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to continue optimizing its product structure in 2024, with significant results from its new energy sector and an increase in revenue contribution from safety protection composite materials, highlighting economies of scale [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.057 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 217 million yuan, up 31.18% year-on-year [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 259 million yuan, an 18.00% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 52 million yuan, a 22.69% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Profit Growth Drivers - The main reasons for the net profit growth in 2024 include: 1. Continuous optimization of product structure, leading to increased sales of high-value-added and innovative products, which improved overall sales prices and gross margins [3]. 2. Successful results from the new energy sector, with an increased revenue share from safety protection composite materials, showcasing economies of scale [3]. 3. High conversion rate of R&D investments, forming a diversified business matrix that enhances synergy and increases market share of core products [3]. 4. Significant cost reduction and efficiency improvement through supply chain management and lower procurement prices for key materials [3]. 5. Improved financial structure with reduced financial expenses and increased returns from cash management [3]. Product Performance - In 2024, revenue from high-temperature mica insulation materials was 727 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.65%, with a gross margin of 38.17% [3]. - Revenue from new energy safety protection composite materials reached 220 million yuan, a substantial year-on-year increase of 81.41%, although the gross margin decreased to 33.38% [3]. - Revenue from fiberglass cloth was 106 million yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.87%, with a gross margin of 23.43% [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy (135 HK), with a target price of HKD 9.02, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price of HKD 7.84 [1][14]. Core Insights - The company has set an ambitious retail gas growth target of 8% for 2025, supported by the addition of 8 city gas projects and an increase in commercial users [2][7]. - The financial outlook shows a slight decrease in core profit expectations for 2024, primarily due to lower-than-expected earnings from the LNG/upstream segment [7]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position with over RMB 20 billion in net cash by the end of 2024, and plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2025 [7][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 177,354 million in 2023 to RMB 200,497 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,682 million in 2023 to RMB 6,948 million in 2025, with a corresponding EPS growth from RMB 0.71 to RMB 0.80 [3][15]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.3 in 2023 to 9.1 in 2025, indicating potential valuation upside [3][15]. Segment Performance - The natural gas sales segment is expected to generate revenue of RMB 152,090 million in 2024, with a slight decline in tax profit forecasted for this segment [9][11]. - The LNG processing and storage segment is projected to see a modest increase in revenue, while the exploration and production segment is expected to decline significantly [9][11]. - Overall, the company anticipates a tax profit growth of 16.4% in 2025, driven by improved performance in the natural gas and LNG segments [11][15]. Operational Metrics - The company’s gas sales volume is expected to rise from 30.3 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 35.5 billion cubic meters in 2025, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.3% [10]. - The LNG plant processing volume is projected to increase from 2.83 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 3.80 billion cubic meters in 2025, with a utilization rate of 68.5% [10]. - The gross margin for gas sales is expected to stabilize at RMB 0.47 per cubic meter through 2025, despite potential discounts for commercial users [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy (135 HK), with a target price of HKD 9.02, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% from the current closing price of HKD 7.84 [1][13]. Core Insights - The company aims for an aggressive retail gas growth target of 8% for 2025, supported by the addition of 8 city gas projects and an increase in commercial users [2][6]. - The financial outlook shows a slight decrease in core profit expectations for 2024, primarily due to lower-than-expected earnings from the LNG/upstream segment [6][7]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position with over RMB 20 billion in net cash by the end of 2024, and plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2025 [6][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 177,354 million in 2023 to RMB 200,497 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,682 million in 2023 to RMB 6,948 million in 2025, with a corresponding EPS growth from RMB 0.71 to RMB 0.80 [3][14]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.3 in 2023 to 9.1 in 2025, indicating potential valuation improvement [3][14]. Segment Analysis - Natural gas sales are expected to generate revenue of RMB 152,090 million in 2024, with a slight decline in profit margins due to increased competition [8][10]. - The LNG processing and storage segment is projected to see a modest increase in revenue, with processing volumes expected to rise by 7% year-on-year [6][9]. - The exploration and production segment is anticipated to face significant challenges, with a projected revenue drop of 81.2% in 2024 [8][10]. Operational Metrics - The company’s gas sales volume is expected to grow from 30.3 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 35.5 billion cubic meters in 2025, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.3% [9][10]. - LNG terminal utilization is forecasted to remain stable at 88% in 2025, with processing capacity expected to increase [6][9]. - The gross margin for gas sales is projected to stabilize at RMB 0.47 per cubic meter through 2025, despite competitive pressures [6][9].