宏华数科：2024年中报点评：Q2业绩超预期，数码渗透率加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 816 million yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 45.80%, and a net profit of 200 million yuan, up 35.45% year-over-year [1]. - The Q2 2024 revenue reached 448 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 61.71%, and a net profit of 114 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35.83% [1]. - The company’s digital printing equipment revenue grew significantly, with a 44.8% increase year-over-year, indicating strong demand and a potential acceleration in digital penetration in the downstream industry [1]. - Domestic revenue growth outpaced international sales, with domestic revenue increasing by 69.5% year-over-year, attributed to robust sales of digital printing equipment [1]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with a new integrated printing industry base project in Tianjin, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and operational efficiency [1]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 457 million yuan, 599 million yuan, and 800 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22x, 17x, and 13x [2][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 1,258 million yuan in 2023 to 3,075 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 33.4% [2][4]. - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 45.95% by 2026, indicating consistent profitability [4]. Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit margin is projected to be around 26.01% by 2026, reflecting strong operational efficiency [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase to 18.17% by 2026, showcasing improved profitability relative to shareholder equity [4]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching 567 million yuan by 2026 [6]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The new production line for digital printing ink and equipment is set to be completed by 2025, with an investment of approximately 600 million yuan [1]. - This expansion is aimed at enhancing the company’s production capabilities and supporting its strategic goals in the digital printing market [1]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the accelerating trend of digital printing in the e-commerce sector, which is expected to drive future growth [1][3]. - The strong domestic market performance indicates a favorable environment for the company’s products, particularly in the context of increasing digitalization [1].