京基智农：行业景气度上行，成本持续下降助力业绩回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance is expected to improve due to rising pig prices and decreasing breeding costs, leading to a significant recovery in earnings [2][3]. - The livestock business has shown strong growth, with revenue from pig farming increasing by 38.54% year-on-year, driven by a 24.04% increase in sales volume [3]. - The real estate sector has faced challenges, with a 90.93% decline in revenue due to reduced inventory after significant deliveries in 2023 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 68.61%, with a net profit of 235 million, down 81.67% [2]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.442 billion, a decline of 25.60% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 179.29% to 181 million, reflecting improved operational efficiency [2][3]. - The average selling price of pigs was 15.20 yuan/kg, up approximately 4.2% year-on-year, while the total breeding cost decreased to 14.84 yuan/kg, down 1.88 yuan/kg from the previous year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 890 million, 1.155 billion, and 686 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.68 yuan, 2.18 yuan, and 1.29 yuan [4][6].