TRIP.COM(09961) 民生证券·2024-08-28 04:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Trip.com Group-S (9961 HK) [3][4] Core Views - Trip com s Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations driven by outbound and overseas business growth [2] - Non GAAP net profit reached RMB 5 billion up 45 YoY with a Non GAAP profit margin of 39 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 4 4 billion with a margin of 35 [2] - The company s outbound hotel and flight bookings have fully recovered to 100 of 2019 levels surpassing the industry average recovery rate of 70 [2] - Trip com s international OTA platform revenue grew 70 YoY maintaining a high growth rate [2] Business Performance - Q2 2024 net revenue was RMB 12 8 billion up 14 YoY [2] - Accommodation revenue grew 20 YoY to RMB 5 1 billion while transportation revenue increased only 1 YoY to RMB 4 9 billion [2] - Vacation package revenue surged 42 YoY to RMB 1 billion and corporate travel revenue rose 8 YoY to RMB 633 million [2] - Gross margin stood at 81 9 slightly down 0 26 pct YoY [2] - R&D and management expenses decreased 1 8 and increased 6 0 respectively with sales expenses rising 1 2 pct YoY [2] Growth Drivers - Outbound travel recovery and pure overseas markets are key growth drivers [2] - Domestic hotel ADR and average airfare prices declined but Chinese site hotel bookings grew 20 YoY [2] - Trip com s international business continues to expand with Trip com platform revenue growing 70 YoY [2] Financial Forecasts - 2024 2026 Non GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 16 505 billion RMB 19 194 billion and RMB 21 858 billion respectively [3] - Non GAAP EPS for 2024 2026 is estimated at RMB 24 15 RMB 28 08 and RMB 31 98 [3] - Adjusted PE ratios for 2024 2026 are 14x 12x and 10x based on the closing price on August 27 2024 [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024 2026 revenue growth rates are forecasted at 17 5 16 4 and 14 5 respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit growth rates for 2024 2026 are 26 16 and 14 [4] - P E ratios based on adjusted net profit are 14x 12x and 10x for 2024 2026 [4] - P B ratios are projected at 1 7x 1 5x and 1 3x for 2024 2026 [4]