山西证券：研究早观点-20240828

Group 1: Market Trends - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming segment, is experiencing a phase of adjustment that may be nearing its end, with market expectations for pig production capacity recovery being overly pessimistic [2][3] - The overall performance of the agricultural sector has been affected by a decline in pig prices, with average prices in key provinces showing a decrease of 5.12% to 5.90% week-on-week [2] - The company has identified potential investment opportunities in pig farming stocks, recommending several companies such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and New Hope Liuhe [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Huayou Cobalt's H1 2024 report shows a revenue of 30.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, but a significant Q2 profit increase of 119.8% due to rising nickel prices and production capacity [4][5] - The company achieved a nickel product revenue of 5.4 billion yuan in H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 72.5%, while lithium product revenue surged by 150.4% [5][6] - Nanshan Zhishang reported a revenue of 776 million yuan in H1 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.89%, and a net profit of 82 million yuan, also up by 6.50% [6][7] Group 3: Industry Insights - The pig farming industry is characterized by high asset-liability ratios and reduced financing capabilities, indicating a prolonged recovery period for the sector [2] - The company anticipates that the pig price cycle will exhibit characteristics of cyclical fluctuations, similar to the U.S. market, with potential for higher peaks compared to previous cycles [2] - The electronic sector, particularly Hengxuan Technology, has shown robust growth with a revenue increase of 68.26% in H1 2024, driven by demand recovery in the smart wearable and smart home markets [11][12] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "Buy-A" rating for Huayou Cobalt, considering its global integrated layout advantages and improved profitability from nickel capacity release [6] - For Nanshan Zhishang, a "Buy-B" rating is maintained, with adjusted earnings forecasts reflecting the company's traditional business improvements and cost management [10] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the pet food sector, particularly for companies like Guibao Pet, which has seen significant online sales growth and improved profit margins [16][18]