ZHEJIANG DINGLI(SH:603338) Guolian Securities·2024-08-28 08:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhejiang Dingli (603338) is "Buy" [7][11]. Core Views - The report indicates that the domestic aerial work platform industry is experiencing lower-than-expected demand, while overseas sales are impacted by exchange rates, tariffs, and international political relations. The projected revenue for the company from 2024 to 2026 is estimated at 77.32 billion, 92.80 billion, and 108.46 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 21.31 billion, 25.42 billion, and 31.08 billion yuan, reflecting a CAGR of 18.52%. The EPS is projected to be 4.21, 5.02, and 6.14 yuan per share for the same period. The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business and enhancing cooperation with large leasing companies, which is expected to generate new demand for its diversified products [3][11]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 38.59 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.24 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.88% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue reached 24.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34%, and net profit was 5.22 billion yuan, up by 1.95% [11][12]. - The sales revenue from the company's boom lift products grew by 57.67% year-on-year, accounting for 48.57% of the main business revenue. The electric versions of these products saw a sales increase of 38.87% year-on-year [11][12]. - The company's gross margin remained stable at 35.30%, while the net margin decreased significantly to 21.37%, down by 5.47 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in sales expenses by 74.26% and foreign exchange losses due to currency fluctuations were identified as key factors for the decline in net margin [11][12]. Financial Forecast - The financial forecast for Zhejiang Dingli includes projected revenues of 77.32 billion, 92.80 billion, and 108.46 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21.31 billion, 25.42 billion, and 31.08 billion yuan for the same years, with an EPS of 4.21, 5.02, and 6.14 yuan per share [12][14]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to grow from 2.63 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.74 billion yuan in 2026, with a corresponding increase in the EBITDA margin [12][14]. Market Position - Zhejiang Dingli is recognized as a leader in the aerial work platform industry, with stable operational capabilities. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's ongoing efforts to expand its overseas market and diversify its product offerings [11][12].