机械相对沪深 300 指数表现 -17% -8% 0% 9% 18% 26% 35% 43% 2025.03 2025.07 2025.11 2026.03 机械 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券 相关报告 机械 分析师：刘智 登记编码：S0730520110001 liuzhi@ccnew.com 021-50586775 顺周期机械复苏持续，高油价有望催化新能 源行业机遇 ——机械行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 《机械行业月报：顺周期机械复苏持续，AI、 人形机器人产业蓬勃发展》 2026-02-26 《机械行业月报：持续推荐人形机器人、AIDC 配套设备，关注低位滞涨板块的轮动机遇》 2026-01-27 《机械行业月报：人形机器人有望成为美国科 技战略主线，建议持续关注人形机器人、AIDC 配套设备》 2025-12-29 联系人：李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788号T1座 22楼 投资要点： ⚫ 3 月中信机械板块下跌 13.54%，跑输沪深 300 指数（-4.95%）8.59 个百分点，在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, with a focus on AI and mechanical equipment investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of AI-driven mechanical equipment, particularly in the robotics sector, where companies like Yushu Technology are showing significant growth in revenue and profitability [1]. - The GTC conference highlighted the increasing demand for AI computing power, which is expected to drive growth in PCB and liquid cooling segments [2]. - The solar equipment sector is poised to benefit from Tesla's procurement of photovoltaic equipment and Blue Origin's satellite launch plans, indicating strong demand for leading equipment manufacturers [3]. Summary by Sections Recommended Companies - The report suggests a focus on companies such as Northern Huachuang, Sany Heavy Industry, and Zhongwei Company, among others, across various segments including robotics, AI devices, and solar equipment [1][2][3]. Industry Trends - The robotics industry is experiencing a significant rebound, with Yushu Technology's IPO materials indicating a revenue increase of 335.36% and a net profit increase of 674.29% for 2025 [1]. - The AI device sector is seeing advancements in architecture and cooling solutions, with Nvidia's LPU architecture expected to enhance performance and drive PCB demand [2]. - The solar equipment market is benefiting from increased demand driven by major companies like Tesla and innovative projects like Blue Origin's satellite constellation [3]. Market Dynamics - The oil service equipment sector is facing short-term adjustments due to geopolitical tensions, but long-term demand is expected to rise as oil prices remain high and reconstruction efforts in conflict areas increase [7]. - The mechanical equipment industry is projected to see significant growth opportunities due to China's increasing foreign investments and the global demand for advanced machinery [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment industry is experiencing sustained growth, with February exports exceeding expectations. The main drivers are the "replacement cycle and external demand" [1][6]. - Domestic sales of excavators slightly decreased in January-February 2026, while exports continued to grow significantly. The overall upward trend for the year remains unchanged despite short-term fluctuations due to the Spring Festival [6]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In February 2026, the Shenwan Machinery Index rose approximately 7.35%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.26 percentage points and the CSI 300 by 7.26 percentage points [13]. - The performance of different segments includes: - Complete machine manufacturing for earthmoving/concrete/lifting machinery: -1.7% - Complete machine manufacturing for others: 2.5% - Components: 20.7% [13]. Industry Tracking - Excavator sales in January-February 2026 totaled 35,934 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.10%. Domestic sales were 15,478 units, down 9.19%, while exports reached 20,456 units, up 38.8% [18]. - Loader sales for the same period were 21,299 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%. Domestic sales were 9,156 units, up 11.5%, and exports were 12,143 units, up 43.9% [18]. Macro Dynamics - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, indicating a seasonal decline. However, high-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5% [48]. - The government has clarified its fiscal strategy, planning to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds and 800 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds to support large-scale equipment updates [48]. Key Targets - Recommended leading manufacturers include: - Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157) - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) - XCMG (000425) - LiuGong (000528) [6]. - Core component manufacturers to focus on: - Hengli Hydraulic (601100) - Aidi Precision (603638) - Fushite (301446) [6].

Key Takeaways from Zhejiang Dingli Co Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhejiang Dingli Co Ltd. (603338.SS) - **Industry**: Aerial Working Platforms (AWP) and construction machinery Core Insights 1. **US Market Outlook**: Management anticipates a return to growth in the US market by 2026, driven by planned price increases and new product launches [1][9] 2. **European Market Stability**: The European market is expected to maintain steady growth into 2026, with Dingli successfully passing some anti-dumping/subsidy duties in 2025 [1][9] 3. **Emerging Markets Growth**: Emerging markets, particularly Africa, are highlighted as key growth areas, benefiting from a low base and expanded distribution networks [1][7] 4. **China Market Stability**: After a prolonged downturn, the Chinese market is expected to remain stable as Dingli shifts focus towards high-value and automation-driven applications [1][8] 5. **Margin Expansion Goals**: Management aims for margin expansion into 2026, despite facing higher tariffs and duties, through product mix optimization and selective price increases [1][10] Financial Performance and Projections 1. **2025 Revenue Performance**: US revenue was approximately $500 million, remaining flat year-over-year, supported by early shipments and inventory build to mitigate tariff risks [1][9] 2. **2026 Growth Expectations**: Management expects solid demand and has already booked US orders through June 2026, indicating a positive outlook for revenue growth [1][9] 3. **Pricing Strategy**: The effective US tariff and duties are around 80%, with selective price increases planned for 2026 to manage the impact on sales [1][9] 4. **European Margin Resilience**: Dingli's EU anti-dumping/subsidy duties are fixed at 20.6%, significantly lower than competitors, providing a cost advantage and supporting resilient margins [1][9] Strategic Initiatives 1. **Product Mix Upgrade**: Dingli is focusing on upgrading its product mix towards higher-ASP boom lifts, which have a substantial technology gap compared to domestic peers [1][11] 2. **Automation and Specific Solutions**: The company is pivoting away from traditional AWP equipment towards application-specific solutions to address labor shortages and environmental constraints [1][14] 3. **Capacity Expansion**: New product facilities (Phase 6 and Phase 7) are expected to enter trial production in 2026, indicating ongoing investment in capacity [1][14] Risks and Challenges 1. **Global Construction Activity**: Weaker-than-expected construction activities globally could impact demand [1][14] 2. **Competition**: Intensifying competition in the global AWP market poses a risk to Dingli's market share [1][14] 3. **Trade Tensions**: Escalating US-China trade tensions could lead to more unfavorable tariffs, affecting Dingli's exports to the US, which currently account for about 30% of sales [1][15] Valuation and Price Target - **12-Month Price Target**: Rmb74.00, implying a 37% upside from the current price of Rmb54.00 [1][16] - **Valuation Metrics**: Target EV/DACF multiple of 11.0x is set at 1 standard deviation below its 3-year average, reflecting uncertainties in global trade [1][13] Conclusion Zhejiang Dingli Co Ltd. is well-positioned for growth in the coming years, particularly in the US and European markets, while also expanding its presence in emerging markets. The company's strategic focus on product differentiation and automation, alongside a robust pricing strategy, supports its margin expansion goals despite facing significant risks from global competition and trade dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report gives Zhejiang Dingli a "Buy" rating for the first time, with a target price of 70.95 CNY based on a 15x PE ratio for 2026 [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for aerial work platforms in Europe and North America is expected to recover, driving the company's performance growth. The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 4.05, 4.73, and 5.37 CNY respectively [3][12]. - The company has established itself as a leading manufacturer of aerial work platforms, with a strong global presence and a significant portion of revenue coming from overseas markets [8][54]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2023A: 6,312 - 2024A: 7,799 - 2025E: 8,856 - 2026E: 9,931 - 2027E: 11,103 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: 15.9% - 2024A: 23.6% - 2025E: 13.6% - 2026E: 12.1% - 2027E: 11.8% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million CNY): - 2023A: 1,867 - 2024A: 1,629 - 2025E: 2,049 - 2026E: 2,393 - 2027E: 2,718 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: 48.5% - 2024A: -12.8% - 2025E: 25.8% - 2026E: 16.7% - 2027E: 13.6% [4] Industry Outlook - The global aerial work platform industry is expected to grow at a rate higher than cyclical trends, driven by increasing safety regulations and high labor costs [45][52]. - The North American and European markets are showing signs of recovery, with factors such as potential interest rate cuts and infrastructure investments expected to boost demand [61][64]. - Emerging applications in AI data centers and related infrastructure investments are anticipated to further drive demand for aerial work platforms [71][72].

Investment Rating - The report gives Zhejiang Dingli a "Buy" rating for the first time, with a target price of 70.95 CNY based on a 15x PE ratio for 2026 [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for aerial work platforms in Europe and North America is expected to recover, driving growth in the company's performance. The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 4.05 CNY, 4.73 CNY, and 5.37 CNY respectively [3][12]. - The company has established itself as a leading manufacturer of aerial work platforms, with a strong global presence and a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas markets [8][54]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Zhejiang Dingli are as follows: - 2023: 6,312 million CNY - 2024: 7,799 million CNY (YoY growth: 15.9%) - 2025: 8,856 million CNY (YoY growth: 13.6%) - 2026: 9,931 million CNY (YoY growth: 12.1%) - 2027: 11,103 million CNY (YoY growth: 11.8%) [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2023: 1,867 million CNY - 2024: 1,629 million CNY (YoY decline: 12.8%) - 2025: 2,049 million CNY (YoY growth: 25.8%) - 2026: 2,393 million CNY (YoY growth: 16.7%) - 2027: 2,718 million CNY (YoY growth: 13.6%) [4] - The company maintains a strong gross margin of 36.8% in 2023, projected to improve to 37.1% by 2027 [4]. Industry Outlook - The global aerial work platform industry is expected to grow at a rate higher than cyclical trends, driven by increasing safety regulations and labor costs [45][52]. - The North American and European markets are anticipated to see a recovery in demand for aerial work platforms, supported by potential interest rate cuts and infrastructure investments [61][64]. - Emerging applications such as AI data centers and related power investments are expected to drive renewed demand for aerial work platforms [71][72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry [1] Core Views - The mechanical sector is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with significant growth in AI and humanoid robot industries [1][4] - In February, the CITIC mechanical sector rose by 6.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.38 percentage points, ranking second among 30 CITIC primary industries [9] - Key sub-industries such as laser processing equipment, other transportation equipment, shipbuilding, boiler equipment, oil and gas equipment, engineering machinery, and 3C equipment saw gains exceeding 10% [4][9] Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Sector Market Performance - As of February 25, 2026, the CITIC mechanical sector increased by 6.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [9] - The top-performing sub-industries in February included laser processing equipment and shipbuilding, with most gains exceeding 10% [4][9] 2. Engineering Machinery - January excavator sales reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5% [18] - The report highlights a sustained recovery in the engineering machinery sector, with leading companies expected to see accelerated performance recovery [33] 3. Robotics - The production of industrial robots in December reached 90,116 units, marking a 14.7% year-on-year increase [36] - The humanoid robot sector is entering a rapid development phase, with significant investments and advancements in technology [47] 4. Shipbuilding - In 2025, China's shipbuilding industry maintained a leading global market share, with a completion volume of 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the engineering machinery sector [1]. Core Insights - January 2026 saw strong sales growth in excavators and loaders, driven by a combination of replacement cycles and external demand. The outlook for 2026 is positive, supported by proactive fiscal policies, stabilization in the European construction sector, and sustained high demand in emerging markets. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand renewal and overseas expansion strategies [5][11]. - The engineering machinery index rose approximately 0.15% in January 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.61 percentage points [11]. - Excavator sales in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales at 8,723 units (up 61.4%) and exports at 9,985 units (up 40.5%) [16]. - Loader sales for the same month totaled 11,759 units, reflecting a 48.5% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales of 5,293 units (up 42.8%) and exports of 6,466 units (up 53.4%) [16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The engineering machinery index in January 2026 increased by about 0.15%, lagging behind major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [11]. - The performance of different segments showed mixed results, with the average price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for complete machine manufacturing and components being 29 and 39, respectively [11]. Industry Tracking - The report highlights significant growth in excavator and loader sales, with excavators showing a 49.5% increase and loaders a 48.5% increase in January 2026 [16][18]. - The report notes that electric excavators and loaders are gaining traction, with electric loader sales reaching 2,990 units and a penetration rate of 25.43% [16]. Macro Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity. However, production levels remain above the critical point, suggesting ongoing expansion in manufacturing [44]. - Infrastructure investment is supported by the issuance of special bonds amounting to approximately 367.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.5% [5]. Key Targets - Recommended key players in the sector include leading manufacturers such as Zoomlion (000157), Sany Heavy Industry (600031), and XCMG (000425), as well as core component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic (601100) and Aidi Precision (603638) [5][54].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhejiang Dingli has approximately 24,000 shareholders as of February 13, 2026 [2]

Group 1 - Zhejiang Dingli experienced a stock price increase of 5.23%, reaching 62.12 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 188 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.61%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 31.454 billion CNY [1] - Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co., Ltd. was established on May 16, 2005, and went public on March 25, 2015. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of aerial work machinery and industrial vehicles [1] - The main revenue composition of Zhejiang Dingli includes: 44.16% from scissor-type aerial work platforms, 37.90% from boom-type aerial work platforms, 9.90% from mast-type aerial work platforms, and 8.04% from other sources [1] Group 2 - Among the top circulating shareholders of Zhejiang Dingli, the Southern Fund's Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) reduced its holdings by 64,600 shares in the third quarter, now holding 3.677 million shares, which accounts for 0.73% of the circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) was established on February 6, 2013, with a latest scale of 144.69 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 11.22%, ranking 697 out of 5580 in its category; the one-year return is 43.16%, ranking 1275 out of 4297; and since inception, the return is 179.88% [2]