ENERGY TECHNOLOGY(SZ:002812) Soochow Securities·2024-08-28 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 is generally in line with expectations, with revenue of 4.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 290 million yuan, down 79.3% year-on-year [3][4] - The company expects to maintain over 30% growth in shipments for 2024, with Q2 shipments increasing by 20% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company is facing significant cost increases, with operating expenses rising by 9.2% in H1 2024, leading to a decrease in profitability [4] - The company has a competitive advantage in overseas production capacity, particularly in Hungary and the U.S., which is expected to contribute positively to future earnings [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 12.591 billion yuan, with a forecasted decline to 11.632 billion yuan in 2024, followed by growth to 14.381 billion yuan in 2025 and 18.126 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to drop significantly to 687.54 million yuan in 2024, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to decline to 19.91% in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the following years [9] - The company’s operating cash flow for H1 2024 was 1.55 billion yuan, an increase of 22.2% year-on-year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been revised down to 690 million yuan for 2024, 1.05 billion yuan for 2025, and 1.84 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 73%, 53%, and 75% respectively [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 36.14 for 2024, decreasing to 13.49 by 2026 [2][4]