中银航空租赁：资产负债两端共振，景气周期充分受益

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a prolonged supply-demand imbalance in the aircraft leasing market, leading to sustained revenue growth and improved asset yields [10][12]. - The company's financial performance is projected to improve due to a favorable debt structure and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, backed by Bank of China, has over 30 years of experience in the aircraft leasing industry, primarily generating 80% of its revenue from operating lease income [10][19]. - The management team has extensive experience, with most members having over 25 years in the industry, which has helped the company navigate various market cycles [25][27]. Industry Outlook - The aircraft leasing market is expected to grow significantly, with the global fleet projected to reach 48,600 aircraft by 2042, representing a CAGR of 3.5% over the next 20 years [10][36]. - The penetration rate of aircraft leasing is anticipated to rise from 51.3% in 2023 to 60% in the coming years, indicating a shift towards leasing as a preferred method for airlines to acquire aircraft [10][36]. Asset and Liability Analysis - The demand for aircraft remains strong, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7% in global RPKs as of May 2024, and a projected annual demand for new aircraft exceeding 2,000 units [10][12]. - The supply side is constrained, with Airbus and Boeing's average monthly production at 72 aircraft, the second-lowest level since 2015, leading to a continued upward trend in aircraft rental prices [10][12]. - Approximately 30% of the company's debt is floating rate, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lower the company's funding costs, enhancing profitability [10][12]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of $25.26 billion, $27.40 billion, and $29.40 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.63%, 8.47%, and 7.28% [10][11]. - Net profit is expected to be $720 million, $835 million, and $945 million for the same years, with a CAGR of 7.34% [10][11]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 83.98, based on a historical valuation of 1.2 times PB for 2024 [10][12].