昇兴股份：海外市场增长显著

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 4.49 CNY, maintaining the rating [1]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in overseas markets despite a decline in domestic revenue due to weak overall consumer demand and excess supply in the metal packaging industry [1]. - The company's net profit for the first half of 2024 is projected to increase significantly, driven by the high-end market trend in the beer sector and expansion of overseas business [2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.7 billion, 5.5 billion, and 6.3 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 7 [2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.54 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million CNY, an increase of 7% [1]. - For the first half of 2024, total revenue was 3.22 billion CNY, down 3.7% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to the parent company rose by 47.9% to 230 million CNY [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 14.7%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.5% in Q2 2024, up 3.6 percentage points [1]. Product and Market Analysis - The company's revenue from easy-open cans in the first half of 2024 was 3.03 billion CNY, accounting for 94.1% of total revenue, while revenue from lids was 8.75 million CNY [1]. - Domestic revenue was 2.79 billion CNY, down 6.3% year-on-year, while overseas revenue increased by 17.9% to 430 million CNY, representing 13.2% of total revenue [1]. - The company has successfully expanded its aluminum bottle business, benefiting from the high-end market demand, and has introduced new lightweight aluminum bottles and large-capacity aluminum bottles [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the high-endization trend in the beer market, which will drive growth in its aluminum bottle business [1]. - The company is also focusing on optimizing internal management and expanding its product offerings, including customized high-end products and new SBC series products [1].