宇通客车：出口持续放量，Q2业绩表现超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus (600066) is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q2 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 190.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.7%. The company's profitability is expected to further improve due to the implementation of the vehicle replacement policy and continued growth in exports [2][6] - The domestic tourism market is recovering, and there is strong demand for buses overseas. In H1 2024, the wholesale volume of large and medium buses reached 49,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, with significant growth in seat buses [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the new round of subsidies for replacing old buses with new energy buses, which could stimulate demand for 20,000 to 30,000 buses [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 16.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.0%, and a net profit of 1.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 255.8%. Q2 revenue was 9.72 billion yuan, up 29.0% year-on-year and 46.9% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company’s gross margin in Q2 reached 26.1%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 10.5%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sales and Market Share - In H1 2024, the company sold 18,300 large and medium buses, a year-on-year increase of 41.5%, with a market share increase of 1.5 percentage points. Q2 sales were 11,400 units, up 19.8% year-on-year and 63.2% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The export volume in H1 2024 was 21,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%, accounting for 43.8% of total sales, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 34.36 billion yuan, 40.93 billion yuan, and 44.64 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.1%, 19.1%, and 9.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.47 billion yuan, 4.28 billion yuan, and 4.86 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 90.8%, 23.5%, and 13.5% [6]