翰森制药：业绩超预期，创新收入高速增长，转型成果显著

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's 2024 interim results exceeded expectations, driven by significant growth in innovative drug revenue and successful transformation into an innovation-driven growth cycle [2] - The company's revenue and profit surged due to the recognition of a USD 185 million upfront payment from GSK in the first half of the year [2] - Innovative drug revenue grew rapidly, accounting for 77.4% of total revenue in H1 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 80.6% [2] - The company's R&D pipeline is robust, with global strategic布局 and accelerated international BD collaborations, providing long-term support for innovation transformation [2] Financial Performance - H1 2024 total revenue reached RMB 6.506 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, with net profit of RMB 2.726 billion, up 111.5% year-on-year [2] - Operating income, excluding milestone payments, was RMB 5.103 billion, up 13.83% year-on-year [2] - Revenue breakdown: Oncology (68.8%), CNS (11.3%), Anti-infectives (10.8%), Metabolism & Others (9.1%) [2] R&D and Innovation - Seven approved innovative drugs and nine indications have been included in the national医保目录 [2] - Core product Ameile (阿美替尼) has seen its third and fourth indications for NSCLC NDA accepted in July and August 2024, respectively [2] - The company's R&D pipeline includes领先 global progress in dual-target GLP-1, B7-H4 ADC, and B7-H3 ADC, with total授权金额 exceeding USD 1.7 billion [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Forecasted total revenue for 2024-2026: RMB 11.874 billion, RMB 12.714 billion, and RMB 14.827 billion, respectively [2][3] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026: RMB 3.524 billion, RMB 3.704 billion, and RMB 4.103 billion, respectively [2][3] - ROE for 2024-2026 is projected at 12.1%, 11.3%, and 11.2%, respectively [3] Stock Data - Closing price on August 28, 2024: HKD 20.60 [4] - Year-to-date high/low: HKD 20.75/HKD 9.43 [4] - Total market capitalization: HKD 122.274 billion [4]