东海证券：晨会纪要-20240829

Key Recommendations - Solid-state battery technology is accelerating iteration, while inverter monthly exports have shown a month-on-month decline. The battery and energy storage sector saw an overall increase of 0.42% during the week of August 19-25, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points. Major inflows were seen in companies like CATL and Sungrow, while outflows were noted in companies such as Penghui Energy and Yiwei Lithium Energy [7][8] - The power semiconductor sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with domestic wafer foundries showing strong recovery momentum. The demand for power semiconductors is driven by AI and consumer electronics, with the global wafer foundry industry revenue increasing by approximately 9% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024 [11][12] Battery Sector - The domestic new energy vehicle market retail sales reached 980,000 units in August, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.6% and a month-on-month increase of 11.6%, with a penetration rate of 53.2%. The sales of low-priced pure electric vehicles are expected to support overall market performance, with a forecast of 11.5 million new energy vehicles sold in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20% [8] - Supply-side adjustments in the industry are stabilizing prices. Lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating, while the price of lithium iron phosphate is near the breakeven point. The demand for graphite is improving marginally, but prices remain close to cost levels [8] - Key companies to watch include CATL, which is expected to ship 480 GWh in 2024 with an estimated profit of approximately 46 billion yuan, and Teruid, which is benefiting from upgrades in power grid investment structures [8] Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage bidding market saw a slight decline, with a total scale of 1.88 GW/7.08 GWh for new projects. The average bidding price for energy storage EPC projects increased to 1.29 yuan/Wh [9] - By the end of H1 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic energy storage projects reached 103.3 GW, a year-on-year increase of 47%. The new installed capacity of new energy storage in H1 2024 was 13.67 GW/33.41 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 71% [9] - Companies to focus on include Sungrow, which has achieved a full industry chain layout in energy storage and is leading in domestic inverter shipments [9] Semiconductor Sector - The power semiconductor sector is showing signs of recovery, with major companies reporting varying degrees of performance improvement. The demand for power semiconductors is being driven by AI computing, automotive electrification, and consumer electronics [12][13] - Notable companies include Silan Micro, which reported a 17.83% year-on-year increase in revenue, and Newclean, which saw a 15.16% increase in revenue and a 47.45% increase in net profit [12] - The domestic wafer foundry market is recovering faster than global counterparts, with companies like SMIC and Hua Hong reporting strong quarterly performance and optimistic outlooks [13] Market Overview - The electronic sector underperformed the broader market, with the electronic index declining by 2.86% compared to a 0.55% drop in the CSI 300 index. The overall industry valuation is at historical lows, suggesting potential for gradual investment [14] - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies benefiting from strong overseas demand in the AIOT sector and those involved in the domestic semiconductor supply chain [14]