Soochow Securities·2024-08-29 00:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.6 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year [3] - The second quarter saw a revenue of 176.2 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26% and a year-on-year increase of 41% [3] - The report anticipates a total vehicle sales of 4 million units for 2024, representing a 32% year-on-year growth [3] Financial Performance - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 718.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.28% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 38.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 26.69% increase year-on-year [2] - The report estimates an EPS of 13.07 yuan for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 16.80 [2] Sales and Market Share - In the first half of 2024, cumulative sales reached 1.61 million units, a 28% increase year-on-year, with a market share of 35%, up 3 percentage points from 2023 [3] - The second quarter sales reached 987,000 units, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40% and a year-on-year increase of 58% [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in exports, with 200,000 units exported in the first half of 2024, a 174% increase year-on-year [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - The report indicates that the gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 20%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The average selling price for vehicles in the first half of 2024 is expected to be 156,000 yuan, down 15% year-on-year [4] - The report projects that the net profit per vehicle for the second half of 2024 will stabilize, with an annual net profit per vehicle expected to reach between 8,500 to 9,000 yuan [4] Inventory and Cash Flow - The company's inventory at the end of the first half of 2024 was 112.8 billion yuan, a 14% increase from the end of the first quarter [4] - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was 14.2 billion yuan, a decline of 82% year-on-year [4] - Capital expenditures for the second quarter were 21.1 billion yuan, with a slowdown in capital expenditure growth [4] Valuation and Target Price - The report maintains the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 38.1 billion, 46.1 billion, and 55.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [4] - A target price of 327 yuan is set for 2024, based on a 25x P/E ratio [4]