中日铁路客运发展对比系列报告之三：鉴往知来，中国铁路加速驶向新时代

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the railway passenger transport industry, specifically recommending "Buy" for Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway and "Overweight" for Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway [1] Core Viewpoints - The development of China's railway passenger transport is currently in a stage similar to Japan's second phase (1976-1990), characterized by privatization reforms, large-scale railway construction, and the need for fare increases due to capital expenditures [1] - China's railway reform has laid the foundation for fare adjustments, with high-speed rail companies now having full autonomy in fare setting [1] - The future direction of railway reform may focus on increasing per-kilometer fares and diversifying fare types, with a long-term trend towards commuting and public utility attributes [1] Summary by Sections Japanese Railway Development History - Phase 1 (1970-1975): Railways were a new mode of transport, attracting passengers with low fares [8] - Phase 2 (1976-1990): Privatization reforms and large-scale railway construction led to fare increases, with fares growing 4 times during this period [1][10] - Phase 3 (1991-Present): Railways' public utility attributes became prominent, and fares stabilized [13] China's Railway Operation and Pricing Mechanism - China's railway operation model is based on "network-operation separation," which is the cornerstone of marketization [24] - High-speed rail companies have full autonomy in fare setting, while ordinary rail fares are still determined by the National Development and Reform Commission [26] China's Railway Fare Marketization Reform - China's high-speed rail fare reform began in 2007, with the introduction of benchmark fares for EMU trains [27] - In 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission granted fare-setting autonomy to high-speed rail companies, marking a significant step in marketization [27] - Recent reforms include cross-province fare adjustments and the implementation of flexible pricing mechanisms [29] Future Reform Directions - Fare Increases: Due to high debt and weak profitability, fare increases are a key direction for reform [31] - Capital Expenditure Pressure: The construction of the "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high-speed rail network and the replacement of trains are driving significant capital expenditures [36][38] - Diversification of Fare Types: China's fare system is expected to become more diversified, similar to Japan's mature pricing system [53] Long-Term Outlook: Towards Railway Commuting - China's high-speed rail is moving towards a commuting model, with the trend of "high-speed rail entering cities" becoming more prominent [59] - The integration of high-speed rail into urban transportation networks is expected to enhance its role as a key link between cities [59]