Haitong Securities·2024-08-29 03:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][6] Core Insights - The company achieved impressive performance in the first half of 2024, with operating revenue of 102.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.42 billion yuan, a significant increase of 670% [6] - The company operates world-class copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with copper production doubling year-on-year to 314,000 tons and cobalt production increasing by 178% to 54,000 tons in the first half of 2024 [6] - The company has exceeded budget targets in its molybdenum and tungsten production, achieving operating revenue of 3.88 billion yuan despite challenges such as declining ore grades and price adjustments [6] - The niobium and phosphorus projects in Brazil have shown stable operations, with niobium production reaching a historical high and revenue of 3.11 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year [6][7] Financial Summary - The company is projected to have operating revenues of 186.27 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 214.77 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.3% [8][10] - Net profit is expected to grow from 8.25 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.55 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [8][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.38 yuan in 2023 to 0.72 yuan in 2026, indicating robust profitability [8][10] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18-20 times for 2024, suggesting a reasonable valuation range of 9.54 to 10.60 yuan per share [6][10] - The projected gross margin is expected to improve from 9.7% in 2023 to 14.1% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8][10]