LI AUTO(02015) 国投证券·2024-08-29 04:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a target price of 109.05 CNY, maintaining the rating [4]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 1.1 billion CNY in Q2 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 52% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 86%. For the first half of 2024, the net profit was 1.7 billion CNY, down 47% year-on-year [1]. - The launch of the L6 model significantly boosted Q2 delivery volumes, leading to a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year and 24% quarter-on-quarter, with total revenue reaching 31.7 billion CNY [1]. - The automotive business revenue was 30.3 billion CNY, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase and a 25% quarter-on-quarter increase. The total vehicle deliveries in Q2 2024 were 109,000 units, up 25% year-on-year and 35% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for the automotive business was 18.7%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the lower selling price of the L6 model [1]. - The company has a strong cash reserve of 97.3 billion CNY, with a reduction in net cash outflow from operating activities to 430 million CNY, a decrease of 2.9 billion CNY quarter-on-quarter [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.7 billion CNY, with automotive revenue contributing 30.3 billion CNY. The gross margin was 18.7%, and the net profit was 1.1 billion CNY [1]. - The company expects Q3 2024 deliveries to be between 145,000 and 155,000 units, with projected revenue of 39.4 to 42.2 billion CNY, indicating a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29% [3]. Market Outlook - The L series models are expected to continue strong sales, with the L7/8/9 models anticipated to rebound in sales alongside the ongoing ramp-up of the L6 model [3]. - The company is solidifying its position in the pure electric vehicle market, with plans for four new electric SUV models to be launched by 2025 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 8.1 billion CNY, 15.4 billion CNY, and 26.5 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 11, and 6 times [8]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 157.1 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 130.8 billion CNY [4].