Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 44.00, indicating a potential upside of 110.0% from the current price of HKD 20.95 [6]. Core Insights - The company has exceeded sales expectations in 1H24, particularly for its products Yijia and Naifukang, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2024-25 and an increase in the target price [1]. - The upcoming 18 months are expected to be rich in catalysts, including the commercialization of new drugs and ongoing clinical studies [1][2]. - The company has demonstrated an efficient commercialization model for Naifukang, achieving significant market penetration with a limited sales force [1]. Financial Performance Summary - 1H24 product sales surged by 158% to RMB 302 million, surpassing market expectations [1]. - Naifukang generated sales of RMB 167 million within a month and a half of its launch in mainland China, with further approvals anticipated [1]. - Yijia sales reached RMB 134 million, driven by positive real-world study results and deeper market coverage [1]. - Adjusted non-IFRS net loss narrowed to RMB 213 million in 1H24 from RMB 327 million in 1H23, with a gross margin of 83% [1]. - The company expects product sales revenue of RMB 700 million in 2024 and aims for cash flow breakeven in 2025 [1]. Revenue Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2024E and 2025E have been adjusted to RMB 744 million (up 5.5%) and RMB 1,504 million (up 0.8%), respectively [3]. - Gross profit estimates for 2024E and 2025E have been revised to RMB 573 million (up 8.3%) and RMB 1,173 million (up 2.1%) [3]. - The gross margin is projected to improve to 77.0% in 2024E and 78.0% in 2025E [3]. Key Upcoming Events - Important upcoming events include the results of the medical insurance negotiations for Naifukang, the submission of NDA for Yikumo in mainland China, and the anticipated launch of additional innovative drugs [2]. - Clinical data readouts for various ongoing studies are expected to provide further insights into the company's product pipeline [2].
云顶新耀-B：1H24产品销售放量超预期，下一波创新药上市潮将至，上调目标价