轮胎行业月报（2024年7月）：原材料价格回调，需求保持稳定

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Bullish" indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [74]. Core Insights - The report highlights a trend of declining raw material prices and shipping costs, suggesting a potential easing of cost pressures for the industry [68][70]. - The production of semi-steel tires remains robust, with high operating rates, while full-steel tire production is experiencing a slight decline [23][15]. - Demand for semi-steel tires is improving, particularly in overseas markets, while full-steel tire demand is still in a recovery phase [69][70]. Cost Side - Raw material prices are showing signs of a downward trend, with July 2024 prices for key materials such as butadiene at 12,998.91 CNY/ton, down 0.38% month-on-month but up 97.31% year-on-year [5][6]. - Shipping costs have peaked and are expected to decline further, with the Baltic Freight Index averaging 5,081.74 points in July, up 18.69% month-on-month and 292.94% year-on-year [9][11]. Production Side - In July 2024, the production of rubber tires in China reached 91.08 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.42% [15]. - Semi-steel tire production was 56.95 million units, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.04% [15]. - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 79.21%, indicating strong production activity, while full-steel tires saw a decrease to 54.80% [23]. Demand Side - The demand for semi-steel tires is on the rise, particularly in overseas markets, while full-steel tire demand is still recovering [69][70]. - In July 2024, China exported 60.60 million new inflatable rubber tires, a year-on-year increase of 6.52% [20]. - The report notes that the overall demand for tires is stabilizing, with expectations for continued growth in the semi-steel segment [69]. Industry News - Major tire manufacturers such as Sailun and Linglong have reported significant revenue growth in their 2024 semi-annual reports, indicating a positive trend in the industry [59][60]. - The global tire market is seeing increased competition, with Chinese manufacturers gaining market share [61][62]. Monthly Summary and Outlook - The report anticipates that as the traditional sales peak season approaches in Q3, both domestic and international demand will remain at historically high levels [69].