Anhui Xinbo Aluminum (003038) 西南证券·2024-08-29 12:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinbo Co Ltd (003038) with a target price of 16.61 RMB for the next 6 months [1] Core Views - Xinbo Co Ltd achieved robust growth in Q2 2024, with revenue reaching 4.167 billion RMB, a YoY increase of 47.78%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 152 million RMB, up 18.88% YoY [1] - The company's new energy photovoltaic business generated 3.687 billion RMB in revenue, a 59.83% YoY increase, despite margin pressure due to declining downstream component prices [1] - The automotive lightweighting business and recycled aluminum projects are still in the ramp-up phase, contributing to temporary losses, but are expected to turn profitable in the second half of 2024 [1] - The company has developed a new generation of lightweight aluminum alloy frames, which are expected to reduce costs and improve profitability [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - In H1 2024, Xinbo Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.167 billion RMB, a 47.78% YoY increase, and net profit of 152 million RMB, up 18.88% YoY [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 2.399 billion RMB, a 52.25% YoY increase, with net profit of 111 million RMB, up 9.13% YoY [1] Segment Performance - New energy photovoltaic business: Revenue of 3.687 billion RMB in H1 2024, a 59.83% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 8.83%, down 3.44 percentage points YoY [1] - Automotive lightweighting business: Revenue of 136 million RMB in H1 2024, a 284.89% YoY increase, but with a negative gross margin of -6.80% due to high initial production costs [1] - Recycled aluminum project: The first phase of the 600,000-ton recycled aluminum project was completed in March 2024, with a total fixed asset investment of 256 million RMB, contributing to temporary losses [1] Profitability and Valuation - The company's gross margin in Q2 2024 was at a historical low, but further declines are expected to be limited [1] - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of 310 million RMB, 450 million RMB, and 640 million RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5x, 7.1x, and 5.0x [1][2] Strategic Initiatives - Xinbo Co Ltd is expanding its aluminum frame production capacity in Southeast Asia and developing a new generation of lightweight aluminum alloy frames to reduce costs and improve profitability [1] - The company's 600,000-ton recycled aluminum project is expected to reduce costs by 400-500 RMB per ton, enhancing profitability and ensuring supply chain stability [1] Industry Comparison - The report compares Xinbo Co Ltd with three peers in the photovoltaic materials industry, with an average P/E ratio of 13.5x for 2024, supporting the target price of 16.61 RMB [6][7]