Guohai Securities·2024-08-31 03:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q2 2024, with revenue and profit both increasing significantly, driven by sales growth and an improved product mix, particularly in overseas and high-end segments [2][3] - The company achieved total revenue of 48.57 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.3% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.3% [2] - The company’s gross margin improved to 21.4%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the expansion in overseas markets and optimization of product structure [3] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q2 2024, the company sold 280,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5% [2] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 174,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [2] - The company’s marketing efficiency improved, with advertising and media service expenses decreasing by 22.7% year-on-year [2] Overseas Expansion - The company’s overseas sales reached 107,000 vehicles in Q2 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 50.1% [3] - Overseas sales accounted for 38.3% of total sales, an increase of 14.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with over 1,300 sales channels and a new factory in Brazil expected to start operations by the end of the year [3] High-Value Brand Growth - The Tank brand saw sales of 67,000 vehicles in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 95.0% [3] - The Tank SUV has maintained the top position in China's off-road SUV sales for 42 consecutive months [3] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 222.5 billion, 260.7 billion, and 287.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 10% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 13.04 billion, 16.33 billion, and 18.96 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 86%, 25%, and 16% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.53, 1.91, and 2.22 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6]