锑系列深度一：三问光伏玻璃需求

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" with a date of August 30, 2024 [2]. Core Insights - The demand for antimony is undergoing a transformation, with projections indicating that antimony demand will reach 172,400 tons, 180,000 tons, and 191,200 tons in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4%, 4%, and 6% [5][6]. - By 2026, the share of photovoltaic (PV) glass in antimony demand is expected to increase from 10% in 2021 to 25% [5][6]. - The report identifies three key questions regarding the role of antimony in PV glass production, its cost structure, and the impact of rising antimony prices on production costs [5][6]. Summary by Sections Demand Transformation - Antimony's demand structure is shifting, with traditional applications gradually being replaced by new productivity demands. The main applications of antimony include flame retardants (55%), lead-acid batteries (15%), polyester catalysts (15%), and glass ceramics (10%) [5][6]. - The share of glass ceramics in antimony demand has increased from 10% in 2021 to 19% in 2023, with expectations to reach 25% by 2026 [5][6]. Photovoltaic Glass - Photovoltaic glass, specifically ultra-white rolled glass, is crucial for the photovoltaic module industry, serving as protective and supportive layers [7][8]. - Key quality requirements for PV glass include low iron content and high light transmittance, achieved through careful control of raw materials and production processes [7][8]. Cost Structure of Clarifying Agents - Antimony-based clarifying agents currently account for approximately 10% of the cost of PV glass, ranking just below soda ash in the main material cost structure [9][10]. - The cost of sodium antimonate and antimony trioxide as clarifying agents is nearly equivalent, with sodium antimonate comprising 9.88% and antimony trioxide combined with sodium nitrate at 9.92% of the total cost [9][10]. Price Resistance and Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the current price level of antimony is tolerable for downstream PV glass manufacturers, who have not yet made significant changes to their clarifying agent formulations despite rising prices [11][12]. - If antimony prices rise to 200,000 yuan per ton, it is projected to become the largest component of material costs, surpassing soda ash [15][22]. Profitability and Market Outlook - The profitability of PV glass manufacturers has shown improvement, with a reported net profit of 2.7 yuan per square meter in Q2 2024, indicating a capacity to absorb rising costs of antimony [15][22].