大宗商品：从成本曲线看：2025年碳酸锂的成本支撑在什么位置？

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for the industry, indicating an expected performance within -10% to +10% relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [7]. Core Insights - As of August 28, 2024, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped to 75,800 CNY/ton, while battery-grade lithium carbonate is at 74,300 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene (CIF China) is at 770 USD/ton, all hitting new lows for the year and breaching some marginal costs in the industry [2]. - The cash cost curve for lithium projects planned for 2025 shows costs ranging from 40,000 to 100,000 CNY/ton. Under a scenario of 20% demand growth, the supply-demand equilibrium cost is estimated at 70,000 CNY/ton, which is close to the costs of larger lithium spodumene mines like Wodgina [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The report highlights the downward trend in lithium carbonate and spodumene prices, indicating a significant impact on the industry's marginal costs [2][3]. Cost Analysis - The cash cost curve for lithium projects indicates that the equilibrium price for supply-demand balance is highly sensitive to demand growth rates, with a critical observation that the market price may need to fall below the equilibrium point for a sustained period to adjust expectations and capital expenditures in the industry [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that despite some small mines exiting the market and a slowdown in capital expenditures, the supply-demand structure remains unbalanced, leading to continued price weakness in the lithium sector [2].